Religions, Fertility, and Growth in South-East Asia

Clara Delavallade and David de la Croix

No 45, 2016 Meeting Papers from Society for Economic Dynamics

Abstract: We investigate the extent to which religions' pronatalism is detrimental to growth via the fertility/education channel. Using censuses from South-East Asia, we first estimate an empirical model of fertility and show that having a religious affiliation significantly raises fertility, especially for couples with intermediate to high education levels. We next use these estimates to identify the parameters of a structural model of fertility choice. On average, catholicism is the most pro-child religion (increasing total spending on children), followed by Buddhism, while Islam has a strong pro-birth component (redirecting spending from quality to quantity). We show that pro-child religions depress growth in the early stages of growth by lowering savings, physical capital, and labor supply. These effects account for 10\% to 30\% of the actual growth gaps between countries over 1950-1980. At later stages of growth, pro-birth religions lower human capital accumulation, explaining between 10\% to 20\% of the growth gap between Muslim and Buddhist countries over 1980-2010.

Date: 2016
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-gro and nep-sea
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Related works:
Journal Article: RELIGIONS, FERTILITY, AND GROWTH IN SOUTHEAST ASIA (2018)
Working Paper: Religions, Fertility, and Growth in South-East Asia (2018)
Working Paper: Religions, Fertility and Growth in South-East Asia (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:red:sed016:45

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