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The Contribution of Structural Break Models to Forecasting Macroeconomic Series

Luc Bauwens (), Gary Koop (), Dimitris Korobilis and Jeroen Rombouts ()

Working Paper Series from The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis

Abstract: This paper compares the forecasting performance of different models which have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. These models differ in their treatment of the break process, the model which applies in each regime and the out-of-sample probability of a break occurring. In an extensive empirical evaluation involving many important macroeconomic time series, we demonstrate the presence of structural breaks and their importance for forecasting in the vast majority of cases. We find no single forecasting model consistently works best in the presence of structural breaks. In many cases, the formal modeling of the break process is important in achieving good forecast performance. However, there are also many cases where simple, rolling window based forecasts perform well.

Keywords: Forecasting; change-points; Markov switching; Bayesian inference (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C22 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-ecm, nep-ets and nep-for
Date: 2011-07
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http://www.rcea.org/RePEc/pdf/wp38_11.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: The Contribution of Structural Break Models to Forecasting Macroeconomic Series (2015) Downloads
Working Paper: The Contribution of Structural Break Models to Forecating Macroeconomic Series (2015)
Working Paper: A Comparison of Forecasting Procedures For Macroeconomic Series: The Contribution of Structural Break Models (2011) Downloads
Working Paper: A comparison of forecasting procedures for macroeconomic series: the contribution of structural break models (2011) Downloads
Working Paper: A Comparison of Forecasting Procedures for Macroeconomic Series: the Contribution of Structural Break Models (2011) Downloads
Working Paper: A comparison of Forecasting Procedures for Macroeconomic Series: The Contribution of Structural Break Models (2011) Downloads
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