Consumer Confidence and Elections

Gikas A. Hardouvelis () and Dimitrios Thomakos
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Gikas A. Hardouvelis: University of Piraeus, Greece and CEPR

Working Paper series from Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis

Abstract: We investigate the behavior of consumer confidence around national elections in the EU-15 countries during 1985:1-2007:3. Consumer confidence increases before the date of elections and falls subsequently by almost the same amount. It is able to predict the strength of the performance of the incumbent party and its probability of re-election both alone and in the presence of macroeconomic and fiscal variables. The post-election drop is negatively related to the previous run up and is a function of the political - but not the economic - environment. A similar rise and fall characterizes consumer confidence in the United States.

Keywords: consumer confidence; national elections; incumbent party; macro-economy; fiscal conditions; political business cycle; EU-15; USA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-07
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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http://www.rcea.org/RePEc/pdf/wp42_07.pdf

Related works:
Working Paper: Consumer Confidence and Elections (2008)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rim:rimwps:42_07

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