Estimates on the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the economy

Lucian Albu (), Ciprian Ion Preda and Radu Lupu ()
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Ciprian Ion Preda: Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy

Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting from Institute for Economic Forecasting

Abstract: Economic growth forecasts have been revised downwards in most countries, but the incertitude regarding the duration or the evolution of the crisis persist. Under the pressure of the Covid-19 pandemic expansion, today it is supposed that a huge global crisis to follow in all fields (humanitarian, social, economic). The pandemic impact is difficult to be evaluated until it will be stopped or at least its peak will be reached. As a contribution to such work, we propose an estimation-simulation model, as an alternative to other models coming from probabilistic, genetic algorithms or other approach. In order to analyse the dynamics of the spread of epidemic among the population, we built a model with differential equations for a special time-function of logistic type, from which resulted certain key-values and four phases in its evolution. Moreover, by simulating the daily dynamics of pandemic at three levels (world, EU, and Romania) we estimated the impact of pandemic on the economic growth to the end of this year.

Keywords: Covid-19; Logistic model; Pandemic Phases; Inflection; Concave Trajectory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C61 I10 I18 J10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 14 pages
Date: 2020-05
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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