Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium

Bart Cockx, Michael Lechner and Joost Bollens ()
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Joost Bollens: -

Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium from Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration

Abstract: Based on administrative data of unemployed in Belgium, we estimate the labour market effects of three training programmes at various aggregation levels using Modified Causal Forests, a causal machine learning estimator. While all programmes have positive effects after the lock-in period, we find substantial heterogeneity across programmes and unemployed. Simulations show that “black-box” rules that reassign unemployed to programmes that maximise estimated individual gains can considerably improve effectiveness: up to 20% more (less) time spent in (un)employment within a 30 months window. A shallow policy tree delivers a simple rule that realizes about 70% of this gain.

Keywords: Policy evaluation; active labour market policy; causal machine learning; modified causal forest; conditional average treatment effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C21 J68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 80 pages
Date: 2020-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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http://wps-feb.ugent.be/Papers/wp_20_998.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium (2023)
Working Paper: Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium (2022)
Working Paper: Priority of Unemployed Immigrants? A Causal Machine Learning Evaluation of Training in Belgium (2020)
Working Paper: Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium (2020)
Working Paper: Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium (2020)
Working Paper: Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium (2020)
Working Paper: Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium (2020)
Working Paper: Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium (2020)
Working Paper: Priority to Unemployed Immigrants? A Causal Machine Learning Evaluation of Training in Belgium (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rug:rugwps:20/998

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