Priority of Unemployed Immigrants? A Causal Machine Learning Evaluation of Training in Belgium

Bart Cockx, Michael Lechner and Joost Bollens

No 8297, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: Based on administrative data of unemployed in Belgium, we estimate the labour market effects of three training programmes at various aggregation levels using Modified Causal Forests, a causal machine learning estimator. While all programmes have positive effects after the lock-in period, we find substantial heterogeneity across programmes and unemployed. Simulations show that “black-box” rules that reassign unemployed to programmes that maximise estimated individual gains can considerably improve effectiveness: up to 20% more (less) time spent in (un)employment within a 30 months window. A shallow policy tree delivers a simple rule that realizes about 70% of this gain.

Keywords: policy evaluation; active labour market policy; causal machine learning; modified causal forest; conditional average treatment effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big, nep-eur and nep-lab
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium (2023)
Working Paper: Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium (2022)
Working Paper: Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium (2020)
Working Paper: Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium (2020)
Working Paper: Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium (2020)
Working Paper: Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium (2020)
Working Paper: Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium (2020)
Working Paper: Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium (2020)
Working Paper: Priority to Unemployed Immigrants? A Causal Machine Learning Evaluation of Training in Belgium (2019)
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