The Consequences of United States Tariff Increases for South African Exports

Lawrence Edwards and Jing Chien ()

No 226, ERSA Working Paper Series from Economic Research Southern Africa

Abstract: The imposition of widespread import tariffs by the United States (US) under President Donald Trump in 2025 has disrupted international trade patterns and poses serious risks to South Africa’s (SA’s) exports. These tariffs build on policies from President Trump’s first term that targeted steel and aluminium products under Section 232.1 These Section 232 tariffs have since been raised to 50% and expanded to also cover additional derivative products. Automobiles and parts (25% tariff), as well as copper products (50% tariff) have also been targeted this year. Earlier this year (2nd April), President Trump also invoked the International Emergency Economic Power Act (IEEPA) to impose a 10% reciprocal tariff on imports from most countries, with country-specific (30% for SA) reciprocal tariffs to kick in from the 1st of August, unless an alternative agreement is negotiated. Some countries, including United Kingdom (UK), European Union (EU), Japan, Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam have made progress in negotiating trade deals that reduce reciprocal tariff rates, and in the case of Japan, EU and UK, lower tariffs (10% to 15%) on vehicles. Although, these don’t directly impact SA, they have an indirect effect by reducing the competitive advantage of SA exporters in the US market. The tariff measures pose serious risks to South African exports, undermining the competitiveness of key sectors and eroding the benefits of preferential access under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).2 This brief quantifies the likely impact on South African exports, and recommends coordinated policy responses to the various tariff increases in 2025.

Keywords: Trade Policy; Exports; Tariffs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F14 F15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-08
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Published in ERSA Working Paper Series, August 2025

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