Sectoral deindustrialization and long-term stagnation of Brazilian manufacturing

Paulo Morceiro () and Joaquim Guilhoto

No 2019_01, Working Papers, Department of Economics from University of São Paulo (FEA-USP)

Abstract: In Brazil and in the world, diagnoses of deindustrialization are concentrated in aggregate manufacturing, so policies can be ineffective if deindustrialization has a sector-specific component. This study quantifies and analyzes deindustrialization for the individualized manufacturing sectors. In order to do so, unpublished series from 1970 to 2016 of the manufacturing sectors' share in the Brazilian GDP were created based on official IBGE data. The results show that the manufacturing sectors have deindustrialized at different intensities and periods of aggregate manufacturing, and a sectoral approach reveals traces ignored by the literature on the quality of deindustrialization. It is concluded that the Brazilian deindustrialization is normal (and expected) for the labor-intensive manufacturing sectors, but premature (and undesirable) for the technology-intensive sectors. Therefore, it has negative consequences for the future scientific and technological development of the country.

Keywords: Sectoral deindustrialization; industrial development; sectoral heterogeneity; structural change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L16 L6 O14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-01-30
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