The Impact of Climate Change on Internal Migration in Brazil

Jaqueline Oliveira () and Paula Pereda ()

No 2019_20, Working Papers, Department of Economics from University of São Paulo (FEA-USP)

Abstract: Business-as-usual climate-change forecasts point to sharp temperature rises and agriculture yield losses in Brazil. We study the impact of these changes on internal migration and population distribution. We employ a spatial equilibrium model in which the climate shapes workers' locational choices through the usual amenity-value channel and the novel indirect channel via agriculture wages. Our simulations reveal that migration rates are 5.9% higher, and that half million more people migrate inter regionally under future climate conditions. Furthermore, climate change will likely exacerbate the country's regional inequalities, as the most developed regions gain population and welfare while the least developed regions lose.

Keywords: Climate Change; Agriculture Productivity; Internal Migration; Regional Inequality; Spatial Equilibrium. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O15 Q51 Q54 R13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-07-29, Revised 2021-03-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-env, nep-mig and nep-ure
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