Voting in the Heat of the Moment: Climate Change Salience and Electoral Behavior

Rafael Araujo (), Leila Pereira () and Rogerio Santarrosa ()

No 2026_17, Working Papers, Department of Economics from University of São Paulo (FEA-USP)

Abstract: We examine the impact of momentary temperature changes on voting behavior in the Brazilian presidential elections from 2010 to 2018, focusing on the candidacy of Marina Silva, a prominent pro-environment politician. Using data on municipality-level voting and daily wet bulb temperature, we find that an increase in temperature on election day relative to its historical mean increases votes for Marina Silva. This effect is driven by the salience of climate change, influencing last-minute voting decisions. Temperature effects are concentrated on election day and the day before, with no impact from earlier pre-election days, highlighting the transient nature of climate salience effects.

Keywords: Salience; Climate Change; Voting Behavior (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 O13 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-06-16
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