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Faraway, so close: coupled climate and economic dynamics in an agent-based integrated assessment model

Francesco Lamperti (), Giovanni Dosi (), Mauro Napoletano (), Andrea Roventini and Sandro Sapio
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Sandro Sapio: Universita degli studi di Napoli "Parthenope"

Sciences Po publications from Sciences Po

Abstract: In this paperwe develop the first agent-based integrated assessment model, which offers an alternative to standard, computable general-equilibrium frameworks. The Dystopian Schumpeter meeting Keynes (DSK) model is composed of heterogeneous firms belonging to capital-good, consumption-good and energy sectors. Production and energy generation lead to greenhouse gas emissions, which affect temperature dynamics in a non-linear way. Increasing temperature triggers climate damages hitting, at the micro-level, workers’ labor productivity, energy efficiency, capital stock and inventories of firms. In that, aggregate damages are emerging properties of the out-of-equilibrium interactions among heterogeneous and boundedly rational agents. We find the DSK model is able to account for a wide ensemble of micro and macro empirical regularities concerning both economic and climate dynamics. Moreover, different types of shocks have heterogeneous impact on output growth, unemployment rate, and the likelihood of economic crises. Finally, we show that the magnitude and the uncertainty associated to climate change impacts increase over time, and that climate damages much larger than those estimated through standard IAMs. Our results point to the presence of tipping points and irreversible trajectories, thereby suggesting the need of urgent policy interventions.

Keywords: Climate change; Agent-based model; Integrated assessment; Macroeconomic dynamics; Climate damages (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C63 Q40 Q50 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp, nep-ene, nep-env, nep-hme and nep-tid
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Journal Article: Faraway, So Close: Coupled Climate and Economic Dynamics in an Agent-based Integrated Assessment Model (2018) Downloads
Working Paper: Faraway, so close: coupled climate and economic dynamics in an agent based integrated assessment model (2017) Downloads
Working Paper: Faraway, so Close: Coupled Climate and Economic Dynamics in an Agent-Based Integrated Assessment Model (2017) Downloads
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