Bayesian Inference in the Time Varying Cointegration Model*

Gary Koop, Roberto Leon-Gonzalez and Rodney Strachan

No 1121, Working Papers from University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics

Abstract: There are both theoretical and empirical reasons for believing that the parameters of macroeconomic models may vary over time. However, work with time-varying parameter models has largely involved Vector autoregressions (VARs), ignoring cointegration. This is despite the fact that cointegration plays an important role in informing macroeconomists on a range of issues. In this paper we develop time varying parameter models which permit cointegration. Time-varying parameter VARs (TVP-VARs) typically use state space representations to model the evolution of parameters. In this paper, we show that it is not sensible to use straightforward extensions of TVP-VARs when allowing for cointegration. Instead we develop a specification which allows for the cointegrating space to evolve over time in a manner comparable to the random walk variation used with TVP-VARs. The properties of our approach are investigated before developing a method of posterior simulation. We use our methods in an empirical investigation involving a permanent/transitory variance decomposition for inflation.

Keywords: Bayesian; time varying cointegration; error correctionmodel; reduced rank regression; Markov Chain Monte Carlo. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C32 C33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 49 pages
Date: 2011-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (45)

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http://www.strath.ac.uk/media/1newwebsite/departme ... 2011/11-21_Final.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Bayesian inference in a time varying cointegration model (2011)
Working Paper: Bayesian Inference in a Time Varying Cointegration Model (2011)
Working Paper: Bayesian Inference in the Time Varying Cointegration Model (2008)
Working Paper: Bayesian Inference in the Time Varying Cointegration Model (2008)
Working Paper: Bayesian Inference in the Time Varying Cointegration Model (2008)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:str:wpaper:1121

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