Nowcasting Scottish GDP growth

Grant Allan, Gary Koop, Stuart McIntyre and Paul Smith

No 1411, Working Papers from University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics

Abstract: The delays in the release of macroeconomic variables such as GDP mean that policymakers do not know their current values. Thus, nowcasts, which are estimates of current values of macroeconomic variables, are becoming increasingly popular. This paper takes up the challenge of nowcasting Scottish GDP growth. Nowcasting in Scotland, currently a government office region within the United Kingdom, is complicated due to data limitations. For instance, key nowcast predictors such as industrial production are unavailable. Accordingly, we use data on some non-traditional variables and investigate whether UK aggregates can help nowcast Scottish GDP growth. Such data limitations are shared by many other sub-national regions, so we hope this paper can provide lessons for other regions interested in developing nowcasting models.

Keywords: nowcasting; mixed frequency data; regional macroeconomics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 33 pages
Date: 2014-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Working Paper: Nowcasting Scottish GDP Growth (2014)
Working Paper: Nowcasting Scottish GDP Growth (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:str:wpaper:1411

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