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The climate niche of Homo Sapiens

Richard Tol

Working Paper Series from Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School

Abstract: I propose the Dominicy-Hill-Worton estimator to estimate the current climate niche of Homo Sapiens and our croplands. I use this to extrapolate the degree of unprecedentedness of future climates. Worton’s peeled hull is a non-parametric, N-dimensional generalization of order statistics. Dominicy and olleagues show that Hill’s estimator of the tail-index can be applied to any homogeneous function of multivariate order statistics. I apply the Dominicy-Hill estimator to transects through Worton’s peels. I find a thick tail for low temperatures and a thin tail for high ones. That is, warming is more worrying than cooling. Similarly, wettening is more worrying than drying. Furthermore, temperature changes are more important than changes in precipitation. The results are not affected by income, population density, or time. I replace the Hill estimator by the QQ one and correct it for top-censoring. The qualitative results are unaffected.

Keywords: tail-index; convex hull; climate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C46 N50 O44 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-05
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