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Is Basel III counter-cyclical: The case of South Africa?

Guangling Liu () and Thabang Molise ()
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Guangling Liu: Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch
Thabang Molise: Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch

No 10/2018, Working Papers from Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model with banking and a macroprudential authority, and studies the extent to which the Basel III bank capital regulation promotes financial and macroeconomic stability in the context of South African economy. The decomposition analysis of the transition from Basel II to Basel III suggests that it is the counter-cyclical capital buffer that effectively mitigates the pro-cyclicality of its predecessor, while the impact of the conservative buffer is marginal. Basel III has a pronounced impact on the financial sector compared to the real sector and is more effective in mitigating fluctuations in financial and business cycles when the economy is hit by financial shocks. In contrast to the credit-to-GDP ratio, the optimal policy analysis suggests that the regulatory authority should adjust capital requirement to changes in credit and output when implementing the counter-cyclical buffer.

Keywords: Bank capital regulations; Financial stability; Counter-cyclical capital buffer; DSGE (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E44 E47 E58 G28 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-cba, nep-dge and nep-mac
Date: 2018
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