Short Run Import Dynamics in Turkey

Altan Aldan, İhsan Bozok and Mahmut Gunay

Working Papers from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: We study the short-run dynamics of Turkish imports between 2003 and 2011 by applying Kalman filter to obtain time-varying parameters for income and exchange rate. In addition to total imports excluding energy, we use data based on broad economic activities in order to allow sectoral heterogeneity in income and exchange rate elasticities. Our results indicate that income is more important (compared to the exchange rate) in determining import growth in most of the sectors, though there is heterogeneity among sectoral responses. Moreover, we find that elasticities (especially for income) change over time, and the change is more prominent after the 2008 financial crisis. Finally, we find evidence of aggregation bias in income elasticity estimates, which increase in recent years.

Keywords: Import demand; Kalman filter; aggregation bias (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C13 C51 F17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara and nep-cwa
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN ... g+Paperss/2012/12-25 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1225

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sermet Pekin (appgm@tcmb.gov.tr) and Ilker Cakar (sermet.pekin@tcmb.gov.tr) and (ilker.cakar@tcmb.gov.tr).