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GDP Growth and Credit Data

Ergun Ermisoglu, Yasin Akcelik and Arif Oduncu

Working Papers from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: It is a well-known fact that there is a strong relationship between bank credit and economic activity. Thus, it is a reasonable question whether credit data can be used in nowcasting GDP growth. It is important for policymakers to make on-time decisions with the most available data. Most macroeconomic variables are made available to public after a considerable delay; however, bank credit data may be very valuable for the early estimate of current GDP as it is available only with a few days delay. In this paper, we aim to investigate the feasibility of using credit data in explaining the variability in Turkish GDP growth as well as nowcasting it. For this purpose, we use credit impulse and new borrowing, two measures of credit flows. We show that both are significant in explaining the pattern of the Turkish GDP growth and have significant contribution in nowcasting it.

Keywords: Nowcasting GDP; Credit Impulse; New Borrowing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara
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