Housing Market Pressures and Post-Earthquake Displacement: Evidence from the 2023 Türkiye Earthquakes

Yusuf Emre Akgunduz and Muhammed Hamza Kayrici

Working Papers from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of the February 2023 Türkiye earthquakes on housing markets in unaffected regions using online real estate listings and a time-based Regression Discontinuity Design. We document a sharp post-disaster demand shock driven by large-scale population displacement, with effects concentrated in the residential rental market. Consistent with a residential displacement shock, no significant effects are detected in commercial property markets. Price increases were highly segmented: pressures were strongest for multi-room units, reflecting the larger family structures of displaced households, and for newly constructed units, indicating a post-disaster flight-to-safety. Cross-sectional province-level and difference-in-differences estimates show that pre-existing migration networks and geographic distance are the primary determinants of rental price pressures.

Keywords: Natural disasters; Housing markets; Rental prices; Internal displacement; Migration networks; Regression discontinuity design (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C21 Q54 R21 R23 R31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2613

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