Google Searches, House Prices and Transactions: Signs of Regime Dependence around Turkiye’s Monetary Tightening

Altug Aydemir and Ali Sevim

Working Papers from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: Do Google searches provide a stable real-time signal for housing markets? Using a composite of housing queries for Türkiye over 2021:M6–2026:M5, we find that the answer depends on the regime and the market margin. The composite tracks real house-price growth strongly during the negative-real-rate boom (0.046, t = 7.1); after the 2023:M7 tightening pivot the association attenuates to −0.003 (t = −0.2), or 0.022 (t = 2.8) with inflation controlled, less than half its boom value. Search–transaction associations are positive after the pivot but otherwise depend on the transformation. Pseudo-real-time nowcast gains for prices are confined to the boom once the post-pivot level shift is allowed for, and none arise for transactions. Search thus behaves as a regime-contingent indicator, not a stable forecasting tool.

Keywords: Internet search; Google trends; House prices; Housing transactions; Nowcasting; Regime dependence; Türkiye (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E31 E52 G21 R31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2619

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