Epidemics and Macroeconomic Dynamics
Masashige Hamano () and
Munechika Katayama ()
No e162, Working Papers from Tokyo Center for Economic Research
We propose a novel SIR-macro model in which virus transmission is uncertain. The model is solved with the perturbation method around a deterministic infectious steady state. Assuming a stationary infection process, a positive infection shock increases infection while reducing consumption and hours worked for susceptible individuals. Further, we estimate our model with the recent US data on the COVID-19 outbreak. Historical decomposition obtained with Bayesian techniques finds that the dis-containment rule that encourages people to work more, as well as infection shock and technology shock, play an important role in characterizing US infection and macroeconomic dynamics.
Pages: 28 pages
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa, nep-isf and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tcr:wpaper:e162
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Working Papers from Tokyo Center for Economic Research Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().