In Search of Valid Results in a Complex Economic Environment

Frans Bal () and Peter Nijkamp
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Frans Bal: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

No 98-005/3, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers from Tinbergen Institute

Abstract: The rapidly increasing dissemination of scientific results exhibits features of complex systems and brings also to light (seemingly) inconsistencies among research findings. At the same time, there is a fast growing interest in comparative studies and related research tools such as meta-analysis and value transfer. Recently, several studies have been published in the economicliterature with the aim to test the performance of value transfer in a direct way. The results from previously independently undertaken studies are then compared with the results generated by value transfer: one of the independent studies is chosen as a study site and serves as a benchmark for value transfer, while the other site is treated as the policy site. Distinct studies show that the values obtained for the policy site via value transfer do not necessarilycomply with the results obtained from the independently undertaken study at that site. This paper will offer a critical methodological contribution to the discovery of sources of difficulties underlying the application of value transfer and the creation of new knowledge. The paper offers new insights by considering value transfer in the light of modern quantitative economicanalysis as well as a formal framework for the applicability of value transfer in economic research. Throughout the paper, simple cases will serve as illustrations for our arguments.

Date: 1998-01-16
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