Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers

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202200071: Import competition and domestic transport costs

Michiel Gerritse and Andrea Caragliu

202200065: Can Communication Mitigate Strategic Delays in Investment Timing?

Ayse Gul Mermer, Sander Onderstal and Joep Sonnemans

20260017: Exclusionary Pricing by State-Owned Enterprises: Experimental Evidence

Florian Heine and Jasper Sluijs

20260016: The bank leverage response to tax shield changes

Felix Ward and Casper de Vries

20260014: Work Requirements in Subsidized Child Care and Maternal Labor Supply

Hans van Kippersluis and Hongliang Zhang

20260013: Use of Shared and Private Information in Long-Term Care Risk Perceptions

Lisa Voois, Teresa Bago d-Uva and Owen O'Donnell

20260011: Correcting Beliefs about Job Opportunities and Wages: A Field Experiment on Education Choices

Bart K. de Koning, Robert Dur and Didier Fouarge

20260009: Circular Triads of overperformance in top European football leagues

Jan van Ours

20260008: Intangible Assets and Imperfections in Product and Labor Markets

Eric Bartelsman, Sabien Dobbelaere and Alessandro Zona Mattioli

20260007: Self-driving neural networks for term structure modeling

Sicco Kooiker, Janneke van Brummelen, Julia Schaumburg and Marcin Zamojski

20260006: Position values and fixed-fraction rules for rooted tree cost allocation problems

Rene van den Brink, Elena Gavilan, Conrado Manuel and Takayuki Oishi

20260005: Psychological Pressure and Team Performance

Jan C. van Ours

20260003: Analysis of the economic and environmental impacts of climate change using RICE model adjusted by methane

Sofia Aleshina, Richard S.J. Tol and Valeriya Ignatovskaya

20260002: Estimation and inference for the persistence of extremely high temperatures

Juan Juan Cai, Yicong Lin, Julia Schaumburg and Chenhui Wang

20250074: Exponentially weighted estimands and the exponential family: filtering, prediction and smoothing

Simon Donker van Heel and Neil Shephard

20250073: Urban densification to support climate adaptation: Balancing costs and agglomeration benefits in the Netherlands

Yashvant Premchand and Peter Mulder

20250072: Personalized Pricing and Consumer Privacy

Harold Houba and Evgenia Motchenkova

20250071: What Did I Forget? Basket Analysis for Large Assortments Using Transformers

Luuk van Maasakkers, Bas Donkers and Dennis Fok

20250070: This paper discusses communication with the general public about financial stability. The paper first draws parallels with the literature on monetary policy communication. Next, it outlines additional challenges facing communication on financial stability. In particular, a broad concept such as financial stability may be difficult to make concrete. In contrast, illustrating financial instability is straightforward. Building on that notion, the paper closes with three focal points for policy communication. First, that financial instability is the exception. Second, that such instability is, however, a very costly exception. Third, that it is, therefore, important to remain vigilant and build financial resilience–even at times when volatility is low. Focusing on these three focal points can help central banks build public awareness of the relevance of financial stability. These points can also be a basis for further empirical research on financial stability communication

David-Jan Jansen

20250069: Has Poverty Decline in India Faltered Since 2011/12?

Himanshu, Peter Lanjouw and Philipp Schirmer

20250067: University as a Melting Pot: Long-term Effects of Internationalization

Stanislav Avdeev

20250066: School choice, school switching, and optimal assignment

Hessel Oosterbeek, Tina Rozsos and Bas van der Klaauw

20250065: The role of news and social pressure in shaping U.S. public opinion on climate change

Masako Ikefuji, Jan R. Magnus and Zhehao Wang

20250064: Equilibrium in the Jungle Edgeworth Box

Harold Houba and Roland Iwan Luttens

20250063: Testing for the Absence of Score-Driven Parameter Dynamics

Andre Lucas and Yicong Lin

20250062: Trust and Policy Capacity - Strategic Bureaucrat Appointments under Electoral Incentives

Dana Sisak and Otto Swank

20250061: Monotone optimal trajectories

Niko Jaakkola and Florian Wagener

20250060: Conservation targeting under fragmentation: Evidence from the Dutch river area

Erik Ansink and Jelmer van 't Veer

20250059: On the Limits of Hedging Inflation Risk in Investment Portfolios

Damiaan Chen, Roel Beetsma and Sweder van Wijnbergen

20250058: Carry Trade and Currency Crash Risk

Merve Kutuk and Sweder van Wijnbergen

20250057: Intergenerational Education Persistence: Evidence from Molecular Genetic Data

Rita Dias Pereira and Hans van Kippersluis

20250056: Do shocks divide or unite: Evidence from the Netherlands

Yannick van Etten, Jan Magnus and Tetsuya Matsubayashi

20250055: Good Vibrations: Outcome Bias in Consumer Demand

Jan C. van Ours

20250054: For What It's Worth: Outcome Bias in Managerial Decisions

Jan C. van Ours

20250053: Exploring the crime drop in European Union homicide rates using econometric modelling

Ilka van de Werve, Siem Jan Koopman, Frank Weerman and Arjan Blokland

20250052: The Ransomware Pricing Paradox: An Empirical Study of the Six Stages of Ransomware Negotiations

Tom Meurs, Anna Cartwright, Edward Cartwright, Harold Houba and Daniel Woods

20250051: An Impartial Look at Asset Correlation Stability and Market Structure

Etienne Wijler and Andre Lucas

20250050: The Consistency Principle in the Reordering Problem

Min-Hung Tsay, Youngsub Chun, Rene van den Brink and Chun-Hsien Yeh

20250048: More information, less precision: meta-analysis through random effects

Jan Magnus and Andrey L. Vasnev

20250046: Vertical Integration in Auction Markets

Sander Onderstal and Ruben van Oosten

20250045: A General Randomized Test for Alpha

Daniele Massacci, Lucio Sarno, Lorenzo Trapani and Pierluigi Vallarino

20250044: Reaching Marginalized Job Seekers through Public Employment Services: Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia

Marc Witte, Johanna Roth, Morgan Hardy and Christian Johannes Meyer

20250043: Should Carbon taxes be Preannounced? On Irreversible Investment, Real Options and Carbon Taxes

Sweder van Wijnbergen

20250042: Matrix-Valued Spatial Autoregressions with Dynamic and Robust Heterogeneous Spillovers

Yicong Lin, Andre Lucas and Shiqi Ye

20250041: Revisiting EWMA in High-Frequency Portfolio Optimization: A Comparative Assessment

Laura Capera Romero and Anne Opschoor

20250040: Sinking Land, Sinking Prices? Land Subsidence, Flood Risk, and Property Prices

Lukas Hofmann, Martijn Dröes and Marc Francke

20250039: Conditional Fat Tails and Scale Dynamics for Intraday Discrete Price Changes

Daan Schoemaker, Andre Lucas and Anne Opschoor

20250038: Efficient Information Aggregation: Optimal Structure of Signal Network

Bernd Heidergott, Frank den Hollander, Ines Lindner and Azadeh Parvaneh

20250037: Measuring and Explaining the CDS-Bond Basis Term-Structure Shape and Dynamics

Yonas Khanna, Andre Lucas and Norman Seeger

20250036: Improving Score-Driven Density Forecasts with an Application to Implied Volatility Surface Dynamics

Xia Zou, Yicong Lin and Andre Lucas

20250035: Economic preferences, personality, and voting

Thomas Buser

20250034: Simulation Smoothing for Nonlinear non-Gaussian State Space Models using Machine Learning Methods

Karim Moussa and Siem Jan Koopman

20250033: Timing is Everything: Labor Market Winners and Losers during Boom-Bust Cycles

Erik Katovich, Dominic Parker and Steven Poelhekke

20250032: Gender and Performance in Collaboration: Evidence from Random Student Teams

Max Coveney, Pilar Garcia-Gomez and Teresa Marreiros Bago d'Uva

20250031: Going the distance? A meta-analysis of the deterring effect of distance in tourism

Thomas de Graaff, Elisa Panzera and Henri de Groot

20250030: Sea Level Rise and Optimal Flood Protection under Uncertainty

Taco Prins, Frederick (Rick) van der Ploeg and Ton S. van den Bremer

20250029: Clustering Extreme Value Indices in Large Panels

Chenhui Wang, Juan Juan Cai, Yicong Lin and Julia Schaumburg

20250028: Retiring the Store Flyer: Effects of Ceasing Print Store Flyers on Household Grocery Shopping Behavior

Arjen van Lin, Kristopher Keller and Jonne Guyt

20250027: Functional Location-Scale Models with Robust Observation-Driven Dynamics

Yicong Lin and Andre Lucas

20250025: Forecasting Atmospheric Ethane: Application to the Jungfraujoch Measurement Station

Marina Friedrich, Karim Moussa, Yuliya Shapovalova and David van der Straten

20250024: Food prices and production in the aftermath of natural disasters: the case of Peru

Francisco Blasques, Paolo Gorgi, Siem Jan Koopman and James Sampi

20250023: Giving as a self-control problem

Cristina Figueroa, Jantsje Mol, Ivan Soraperra and Joël Van der Weele

20250022: Semiparametric Estimation of Probability Weighting Functions Implicit in Option Prices

H. Peter Boswijk, Jeroen Dalderop, Roger Laeven and Niels Marijnen

20250021: On the Correlations in Linearized Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models

Karim Moussa

20250020: Labor Market Dynamics in a Highly Competitive Industry

Francesco Principe and Jan van Ours

20250019: Feedback, Confidence and Job Search Behavior

Tsegay Tekleselassie, Marc Witte, Jonas Radbruch, Lukas Hensel and Ingo Isphording

20250018: On Bogey Teams and Circular Triads: Psychological Factors in Team Performance

Jan van Ours

20250017: Construction of Compromise Values for Cooperative Games

Robert P. Gilles and Rene van den Brink

20250016: New rank-based tests and estimators for Common Primitive Shocks

Federico Carlini, Mirco Rubin and Pierluigi Vallarino

20250015: Non-Transitive Patterns in Sports Match Outcomes: A Profitable Anomaly

Jan van Ours

20250014: Closing the Mismatch: Encouraging Jobseekers to Reskill for Shortage Occupations

Elisabeth Leduc and Ilan Tojerow

20250013: The Role of Opinion Polls in Coordination Amongst Protest Voters: An Experimental Study

Oliver Feltham, Arthur Schram and Randolph Sloof

20250012: How the design of cartel fines affects prices: Evidence from the lab

Sindri Engilbertsson, Sander Onderstal and Leonard Treuren

20250011: Score-driven time-varying parameter models with splinebased densities

Janneke van Brummelen, Paolo Gorgi and Siem Jan Koopman

20250010: Measuring Family (Dis)Advantage: Lessons from Detailed Parental Information

Sander de Vries

20250009: Early History of Cannabis Use in Amsterdam

Jan van Ours

20250008: Lifting up the lives of extremely disadvantaged youth: The role of staying in school longer

Jan van Ours and Julie Moschion

20250007: Willingness to Compete in Dirty Competitions

Thomas Buser and Sahar Sangi

20250005: Daily Struggles, Shifting Moods: The Short-Term Dynamics of income and Depression

Nursena Aksünger, Wendy Janssens and Menno Pradhan

20250004: Copula tensor count autoregressions for modeling multidimensional integer-valued time series

Mirko Armillotta, Paolo Gorgi and Andre Lucas

20250003: Domain Informed Negative Sampling Strategies for Dynamic Graph Embedding in Meme Stock Related Social Networks

Yunming Hui, Inez Maria Zwetsloot, Simon Trimborn and Stevan Rudinac

20250002: Do energy-efficient homes improve residents’ health? Evidence from insurers' records

Vincent P. Roberdel, Ioulia Ossokina, Jos van Ommeren and Theo A. Arentze

20250001: Soft Landing and Inflation Scares

Jim Bullard, Alex Grimaud, Isabelle Salle and Gauthier Vermandel

20240082: Dynamic kernel models

Pierluigi Vallarino

20240081: Using Nudging Information to Manage Congestion and Emissions in a Road and Metro Network

Zhiyuan Liang, Vincent van den Berg, Erik Verhoef and Yacan Wang

20240080: Influential assets in Large-Scale Vector AutoRegressive Models

Kexin Zhang and Simon Trimborn

20240079: A Unifying Theory of Aging and Mortality

Valentin Flietner, Bernd Heidergott, Frank den Hollander, Ines Lindner, Azadeh Parvaneh and Holger Strulik

20240078: Spillovers from legal cooperation to non-competitive prices

Jeroen Hinloopen, Stephen Martin, Sander Onderstal and Leonard Treuren

20240077: Three-Sided Testing to Establish Practical Significance: A Tutorial

Peder Isager and Jack Fitzgerald

20240076: Power in plurality games

Rene van den Brink, Dinko Dimitrov and Agnieszka Rusinowska

20240075: Estimation of Linear models from Coarsened Observations: A Method of Moments Approach

Bernard M.S. van Praag, J. Peter Hop and William H. Greene

20240074: Asymmetric Gradualism in US Monetary Policy

Knut Are Aastveit, Jamie Cross, Francesco Furlanetto and Herman van Dijk

20240073: Land subsidence, Water management, House prices, Hedonic pricing, Climate adaptation

Yashvant Premchand, Henri de Groot, Thomas Graaff and Eric Koomen

20240072: Modeling Common Bubbles: A Mixed Causal Non-Causal Dynamic Factor Model

Gabriele Mingoli

20240071: Corporate Legacy Debt, Inflation, and the Efficacy of Monetary Policy

Charles A.E. Goodhart, Udara Peiris, Dimitrios Tsomocos and Xuan Wang

20240070: Identifying the Impact of Hypothetical Stakes on Experimental Outcomes and Treatment Effects

Jack Fitzgerald

20240069: Joint extreme Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall dynamics with a single integrated tail shape parameter

Enzo D'Innocenzo, Andre Lucas, Bernd Schwaab and Xin Zhang

20240068: Time-Varying Factor Model Components for Effective Momentum Strategy

Jamie Cross, Lennart Hoogerheide and Herman van Dijk

20240067: Estimating Public Preferences on Population Health Ethics

Rory Allanson and Matthew Robson

20240066: Mitigating Estimation Risk: a Data-Driven Fusion of Experimental and Observational Data

Francisco Blasques, Paolo Gorgi, Siem Jan Koopman and Noah Stegehuis