Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers

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20260082: Representation over Rents: Stochastic Volatility Models with Stable Disturbances: Estimation via Linearization

Fernando Roders, Siem Jan Koopman and Karim Moussa

20260081: Representation over Rents: Sorting in a Market for Lemons

Xiaoming Cai and Pieter Gautier

20260080: Representation over Rents: Heterogeneity in Expectations: Empirical and Experimental Evidence

Isabelle Salle and Hung Truong

20260079: Health insurance in low- and middle-income countries increases financial protection and utilization, but health improvements have not been consistently found, prompting debate about the value of subsidized coverage. We revisit this question using a cluster-randomized experiment of a fully subsidized, mobile-based health insurance program in Kenya, combined with weekly surveys collected over eighteen months. Full subsidies combined with trusted, hands-on registration support drove take-up near universal coverage, addressing the weak first stage that has limited prior evaluations, while high-frequency measurement captures health events that standard recall surveys miss. We find that insurance reduces catastrophic health expenditure, shifts responses to illness from foregone care and self-medication toward formal care, and speeds care-seeking after illness or injury. We find suggestive evidence of health improvements through fewer days unable to perform daily activities. These effects would likely go undetected in standard endline surveys, underscoring the value of high-frequency measurement combined with strong take-up

Clotilde Mahe, Richard de Groot, Amanuel Abajobir, Caroline Wainaina, Estelle Monique Sidze, Menno Pradhan and Wendy Janssens

20260078: New Early-Warning Indicators of Macro-Financial Risk: A Mixture-of-Experts Approach

Isaac Baley, Ana Figueiredo, Cristiano Mantovani and Alireza Sepahsalari

20260077: Representation over Rents: Labor Market Beliefs and the Gender Wage Gap

Christine Braun and Ana Figueiredo

20260076: Representation over Rents: The Broad-Coalition Norm in Dutch Local Politics

Lotte Swank, Otto Swank and Joes de Natris

20260075: Randomizing in Search Ad Auctions to Extract Revenue from Runaway Winners

Simon van Tartwijk

20260074: New Early-Warning Indicators of Macro-Financial Risk: A Mixture-of-Experts Approach

Francisco Blasques, Nepomuk Dunz, Erik Feyen, Charl Jooste, Siem Jan Koopman and Gabriele Mingoli

20260073: Synchronized Time Series Models for National Accounts Data

Lucas Harlaar, Jan van den Brakel and Siem Jan Koopman

20260072: Truth, Lies, and Social Ties: When Image Concerns Fuel Fake News

Dana Sisak and Philipp Denter

20260071: A Subsidization Dilemma: the Effect of Shadow Cost of Public Funds and Consumer Distribution

Jaap Roelen, Martijn Ketelaars and Peter Kort

20260070: Market-Informed Networks for Modeling and Forecast Evaluation of Financial Extremes

Ayla Jungbluth, Johannes Lederer and Simon Trimborn

20260069: Blockchains and Strategic Secondary Censorship

Yackolley Amoussou-Guenou and Maarten R.C. van Oordt

20260068: Filtering without Recursion and Some of Its Uses in Financial Economics

Simon Donker van Heel and Neil Shephard

20260067: Claims on What Remains

Erik Ansink and Hans-Peter Weikard

20260066: A Bayesian-Inspired Approach to Improving the Precision of Synthetic Panel Estimates of Poverty Dynamics

Gerton Rongen, Peter Lanjouw and Chris Elbers

20260065: What Makes Life Meaningful?

Jan Berendsen, Robert Dur and Iris Kesternich

20260064: A competitive world

Thomas Buser, Alexander Cappelen, Uri Gneezy and Bertil Tungodden

20260063: Gender differences in willingness to compete: A survey of the literature

Thomas Buser

20260062: Off-Path Beliefs

Duarte Gonçalves, Terri Kneeland and Andreas G. B. Ziegler

20260061: Composite Univariate Modeling of Realized Covariance Matrix Dynamics and Volatility-at-Risk

Justus Holman, Andre Lucas and Anne Opschoor

20260060: Joint Eigenvector and Eigenvalue Dynamics with an Application to Time-Varying Covariance Matrices

Justus Holman, Yicong Lin, Andre Lucas and Anne Opschoor

20260059: Dust in the Wind: Causes and Consequences of Managerial Replacements

Jan van Ours

20260058: An Allocative Efficiency Rationale for a Universal Basic Income

Robert Dur and Anja Schöttner

20260057: A Dynamic Nonlinear Panel Decomposition Model for the Global Environmental Kuznets Curve

Cheyenne Amoroso, Carolina Garcia-Martos and Siem Jan Koopman

20260056: When Is the Mover-Design Event Study Coefficient a Place-Effect Share?

Vahid Moghani

20260055: Confidence Sets for the Date of a Weak Mean Break in Functional Data

Yicong Lin

20260054: Job Matches and Mobility of High Wage Workers in an International Labor Market

Thomas Peeters and Jan C. van Ours

20260053: Racial Gaps in Managerial Career Advancement

Sam Hoey, Thomas Peeters and Stefan Szymanski

20260052: Performing under Pressure: Revisiting Penalty Shootouts

Jan van Ours and Martin van Tuijl

20260051: The Honesty Penalty: Hiding Mistakes in Teams

Randolph Sloof, Julian Tait and Jeroen van de Ven

20260050: The Metric is the Message? How Inequality Metrics Shape Perceptions and Preferences for Redistribution

Ekaterina Siniakova, Oda Sund and Joël van der Weele

20260049: Family Health Spillovers: A Multidimensional Regression Discontinuity Design

Fabrice Kampfen, Owen O'Donnell and Xuezheng Qin

20260048: Investment Targets as Reference Points

Aleksi Pitkäjärvi, Matteo Vacca and Petra Vokata

20260047: Leveraging private information when interests diverge: An experimental comparison of communication versus restricted delegation

Silvia Dominguez-Martinez and Randolph Sloof

20260046: The Micro-Aggregated Phillips Curve

Daniele Aglio and Eric Bartelsman

20260045: Does Stricter Disability Screening Lead to Improved Targeting on Long-term Health and Employment Outcomes?

Chiara Campana, Pierre Koning and Maarten Lindeboom

20260044: Environmental Regulatory Risk

Peter Boswijk, Cees Diks, Simon Trimborn and Matteo Valle

20260043: Flow Variability and Data Sharing in Transboundary River Treaties

Erik Ansink, Jens Gudmundsson and Harold Houba

20260042: The Impact of International Conflict on Cross-Border Commercial Dispute Resolution

Dmitrii Shchetinin and Stanislav Avdeev

20260041: R&D Competition and Cooperation with Distance-Dependent Spillovers

Grega Smrkolj and Florian Wagener

20260040: An Extended Score-Driven Dynamic Factor Model: Constructing Composite Indices in Turbulent Times

Mariia Artemova, Dick van Dijk and Evgenii Vladimirov

20260039: Remote Work and the Corporate Hierarchy

Emanuele Bajo, Aleksi Pitkäjärvi and Matteo Vacca

20260038: Childhood misbehavior, toxic personality and leadership

Thomas Buser

20260037: Too competitive to care? The overall explanatory power of personality for occupational gender segregation

Thomas Buser

20260036: Heterogeneity in the Formation of Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Micro Data

Olena Kostyshyna, Isabelle Salle and Hung Truong

20260035: Platform-Controlled Search and Distortions in Attention Allocation

Xiaoming Cai, Pieter Gautier and Ronald Wolthoff

20260034: Trust in flood protection: Spillovers from prior experience with non-flood hazards

Takis Antonopoulos and David-Jan Jansen

20260033: Measuring Economic Impacts of Environmental Policy Transitions Across Countries

Francisco Blasques, Siem Jan Koopman, Anthony van Veen and Ilka van de Werve

20260032: Road Networks and Tropical Deforestation

Christian Bogmans, Gerard van der Meijden and Cees Withagen

20260031: Fiscal Beliefs & Narratives

Cars Hommes, Isabelle Salle and Julien Pinter

20260030: When OPEC Leads and the Fringe Follows: A Climate Story

Hassan Benchekroun, Simon Elgersma, Gerard van der Meijden and Cees Withagen

20260029: Floods and homeowners' financial resilience: Survey-based evidence from the Netherlands

Dorien de Leeuw and David-Jan Jansen

20260028: A Bright Side of Peter-Principle Promotions

Robert Dur, Kimiyuki Morita and Takeharu Sogo

20260027: Could Country-by-Country Reporting Increase Profit Shifting?

Ruby Doeleman, Dominika Langenmayr and Dirk Schindler

20260026: Characteristic Function-Based Factor Modeling of Affine Jump-Diffusions using Options

H. Peter Boswijk, Roger Laeven, Niels Marijnen and Evgenii Vladimirov

20260025: Electric vehicles reduce driver injury severity but increase risk for other road users

Junjie Lin, Cheng Keat Tang and Jos van Ommeren

20260024: Policing Police Violence: Sheriff-Coroners and the Underreporting of Police Killings

Rubén Poblete-Cazenave

20260023: Barron-Loss Adaptive Estimation

Ramon F. A. de Punder, Mathijs R. G. Dijkstra and Cees G. H. Diks

20260022: Proper and Robust Autoregressive Derivative Adaptive Models

Ramon de Punder

20260021: Collusion in the polluted river problem

Mikel Álvarez-Mozos, Rene van den Brink and Marti Jane-Ballarin

20260020: From Grants to Loans: Mental Health and Adaptive Responses to the 2015 Dutch Student Finance Reform

Nursena Aksunger, Wendy Janssens and Menno Pradhan

20260019: Tier count in traffic-light eco-labels

Erik Ansink and Frederic Klapwijk

20260018: A randomized experiment on improving job search skills of older unemployed workers

Nynke de Groot and Bas van der Klaauw

20260017: Exclusionary Pricing by State-Owned Enterprises: Experimental Evidence

Florian Heine and Jasper Sluijs

20260016: The bank leverage response to tax shield changes

Felix Ward and Casper de Vries

20260015: Pricing and investment by a two-sided monopoly platform

José Luis Moraga-González, Evgenia Motchenkova and Long Hoàng

20260014: Work Requirements in Subsidized Child Care and Maternal Labor Supply

Hans van Kippersluis and Hongliang Zhang

20260013: Use of Shared and Private Information in Long-Term Care Risk Perceptions

Lisa Voois, Teresa Bago d-Uva and Owen O'Donnell

20260012: Leveraging Probability Distortion to Target Prevention: A Cardiovascular Screening Experiment in the Philippines

Aurélien Baillon, Joseph Capuno, Aleli Kraft, Jenny Kudymowa and Owen O'Donnell

20260011: Correcting Beliefs about Job Opportunities and Wages: A Field Experiment on Education Choices

Bart K. de Koning, Robert Dur and Didier Fouarge

20260010: The Effects of Climate Change and Climate Policy on Credit Risk

Matthijs Leegstra, Erik Kole and Rasmus Lönn

20260009: Circular Triads of overperformance in top European football leagues

Jan van Ours

20260008: Intangible Assets and Imperfections in Product and Labor Markets

Eric Bartelsman, Sabien Dobbelaere and Alessandro Zona Mattioli

20260007: Self-driving neural networks for term structure modeling

Sicco Kooiker, Janneke van Brummelen, Julia Schaumburg and Marcin Zamojski

20260006: Position values and fixed-fraction rules for rooted tree cost allocation problems

Rene van den Brink, Elena Gavilan, Conrado Manuel and Takayuki Oishi

20260005: Psychological Pressure and Team Performance

Jan C. van Ours

20260004: Dynamic Regularized Parametric Portfolio Policies

Bram van Os, Rasmus Lönn and Dick van Dijk

20260003: Analysis of the economic and environmental impacts of climate change using RICE model adjusted by methane

Sofia Aleshina, Richard Tol and Valeriya Ignatovskaya

20260002: Estimation and inference for the persistence of extremely high temperatures

Juan Juan Cai, Yicong Lin, Julia Schaumburg and Chenhui Wang

20260001: Mergers and R&D Investment: A Unified Approach

José Luis Moraga-González and Evgenia Motchenkova

20250074: Exponentially weighted estimands and the exponential family: filtering, prediction and smoothing

Simon Donker van Heel and Neil Shephard

20250073: Urban densification to support climate adaptation: Balancing costs and agglomeration benefits in the Netherlands

Yashvant Premchand and Peter Mulder

20250072: Personalized Pricing and Consumer Privacy

Harold Houba and Evgenia Motchenkova

20250071: What Did I Forget? Basket Analysis for Large Assortments Using Transformers

Luuk van Maasakkers, Bas Donkers and Dennis Fok

20250070: What should we say, when we talk about financial stability with the public?

David-Jan Jansen

20250069: Has Poverty Decline in India Faltered Since 2011/12?

Himanshu Himanshu, Peter Lanjouw and Philipp Schirmer

20250068: Far from free: How social proximity affects paternalism

Katharina Brütt and Eve Ernst

20250067: University as a Melting Pot: Long-term Effects of Internationalization

Stanislav Avdeev

20250066: School choice, school switching, and optimal assignment

Hessel Oosterbeek, Tina Rozsos and Bas van der Klaauw

20250065: The role of news and social pressure in shaping U.S. public opinion on climate change

Masako Ikefuji, Jan R. Magnus and Zhehao Wang

20250064: Equilibrium in the Jungle Edgeworth Box

Harold Houba and Roland Iwan Luttens

20250063: Testing for the Absence of Score-Driven Parameter Dynamics

Andre Lucas and Yicong Lin

20250062: Trust and Policy Capacity - Strategic Bureaucrat Appointments under Electoral Incentives

Dana Sisak and Otto Swank

20250061: Monotone optimal trajectories

Niko Jaakkola and Florian Wagener

20250060: Conservation targeting under fragmentation: Evidence from the Dutch river area

Erik Ansink and Jelmer van 't Veer

20250059: On the Limits of Hedging Inflation Risk in Investment Portfolios

Damiaan Chen, Roel Beetsma and Sweder van Wijnbergen

20250058: Carry Trade and Currency Crash Risk

Merve Kutuk and Sweder van Wijnbergen

20250057: Intergenerational Education Persistence: Evidence from Molecular Genetic Data

Rita Dias Pereira and Hans van Kippersluis