Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers

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202200071: Import competition and domestic transport costs

Michiel Gerritse and Andrea Caragliu

202200065: Can Communication Mitigate Strategic Delays in Investment Timing?

Ayse Gul Mermer, Sander Onderstal and Joep Sonnemans

20230030: The Fast and The Studious? Ramadan Observance and Student Performance

Kyra Hanemaaijer, Olivier Marie and Marco Musumeci

20230028: History-Dependent Monetary Regimes: A Lab Experiment and a Henk Model

Jasmina Arifovic, Isabelle Salle and Hung Truong

20230027: Who’s Afraid of Policy Experiments?

Robert Dur, Arjan Non, Paul Prottung and Benedetta Ricci

20230026: The Gasoline Climate Trap

Josse Delfgaauw and Otto Swank

20230025: Homo Moralis and regular altruists II

Aslihan Akdeniz, Christopher Graser and Matthijs van Veelen

20230024: An urban overhead? Crime, agglomeration, and amenity

Stuart Donovan, Thomas de Graaff, Henri de Groot and Aaron Schiff

20230022: Consumption Choices and Earnings Expectations: Empirical Evidence and Structural Estimation

Christian Stoltenberg and Arne Uhlendorff

20230021: A Multilevel Factor Model for Economic Activity with Observation Driven Dynamic Factors

Mariia Artemova, Francisco Blasques and Siem Jan Koopman

20230020: Competing for Dark Trades

Paul J. Irvine and Egle Karmaziene

20230019: Aversion to Health Inequality - Pure, Income-Related and Income-Caused

Matthew Robson, Owen O’Donnell and Tom Van Ourti

20230018: Slow Expectation-Maximization Convergence in Low-Noise Dynamic Factor Models

Daan Opschoor and Dick van Dijk

20230017: Distributionally Sensitive Measurement and Valuation of Population Health

Shaun Da Costa, Owen O'Donnell and Raf Van Gestel

20230016: Extremum Monte Carlo Filters: Real-Time Signal Extraction via Simulation and Regression

Francisco Blasques, Siem Jan Koopman and Karim Moussa

20230015: A Framework for the Estimation of Demand for Differentiated Products with Simultaneous Consumer Search

Josè L. Moraga González, Zsolt Sándor and Matthijs Wildenbeest

20230014: Flooded House or Underwater Mortgage? The Implications of Climate Change and Adaptation on Housing, Income & Wealth

Yasmine van der Straten

20230013: Analyzing and forecasting economic crises with an agent-based model of the euro area

Cars Hommes and Sebastian Poledna

20230012: Preference estimation from point allocation experiments

Marion Collewet and Paul Koster

20230011: An inexact science: Accounting for measurement error and downward bias in mode and location choice models

Stuart Donovan, Thomas de Graaff and Henri de Groot

20230010: Stronger together: Group incentives and the demand for prevention

Mylène Lagarde and Carlos Riumallo Herl

20230009: Urban income inequality and social welfare

Paul Koster

20230008: Counting what counts: Moral considerations and market surplus

Paul Koster

20230007: Does trade integration imply growth in Latin America? Evidence from a dynamic spatial spillover model

F. Blasques, P. Gorgi, S. J. Koopman and James Sampi

20230006: Does offshoring shape labor market imperfections? A comparative analysis of Belgian and Dutch firms

Sabien Dobbelaere, Catherine Fuss and Mark Vancauteren

20230005: Borrowing constraints, housing tenure choice and buy-to-let investors: An assignment model

Jan Rouwendal, Florian Sniekers and Ning Jia

20230004: Time-Weighted Difference-in-Differences: Accounting for Common Factors in Short T Panels

Timo Schenk

20230003: Activating the Long-Term Inactive: Labor Market and Mental Health Effects

Mareen Bastiaans, Robert Dur and Anne C. Gielen

20230002: Macroprudential Regulation: A Risk Management Approach

Sweder van Wijnbergen and Daniël Dimitrov

20230001: Regional Capital No More. How the Reform of the Territorial Government has Marginalized Polish Middle-sized Cities

Borys Cie?lak, Paula Nagler and Frank van Oort

20220098: Skills, Parental Sorting, and Child Inequality

Martin Nybom, Erik Plug, Bas van der Klaauw and Lennart Ziegler

20220097: Na?ve Learning in Social Networks with Fake News: Bots as a Singularity

Saeed Badri, Bernd Heidergott and Ines Lindner

20220096: Working from Home in the Netherlands: Looking Inside the Blackbox of Work and Occupations

Emil Mihaylov

20220095: Selective Exercise of Discretion in Disability Insurance Awards

Pilar Garcia-Gomez, Pierre Koning, Owen O'Donnell and Carlos Riumallo Herl

20220094: Multivariate quantile regression using superlevel sets of conditional densities

Annika Camehl, Dennis Fok and Kathrin Gruber

20220093: Fully Modified Estimation in Cointegrating Polynomial Regressions: Extensions and Monte Carlo Comparison

Yicong Lin and Hanno Reuvers

20220092: Cointegrating Polynomial Regressions With Power Law Trends: Environmental Kuznets Curve or Omitted Time Effects?

Yicong Lin and Hanno Reuvers

20220091: Two Birds with One Stone: Technology Adoption and Market Participation through Protection against Crop Failure

Wouter Zant

20220090: Nevertheless, they persist: Cross-Country Differences in Homeownership Behavior

Stefanie Huber and Tobias Schmidt

20220089: Finding the European crime drop using a panel data model with stochastic trends

Ilka van de Werve and Siem Jan Koopman

20220088: Intergenerational Sharing ofUnhedgeable Inflation Risk

Damiaan H.J. Chen, Roel Beetsma and Sweder van Wijnbergen

20220087: Father of the Bride, or Steel Magnolias? Targeting men, women or both to reduce child marriage

Rachel Cassidy, Anaya Dam, Wendy Janssens, Umair Kiani and Karlijn Morsink

20220086: Disinformation for Hire: Examining the Production of False COVID-19 Information

Alain Cohn, Jan Stoop and Hatim A. Rahman

20220085: Firm Consolidation and Labor Market Outcomes

Sabien Dobbelaere, Grace McCormack, Daniel Prinz and Sándor Sóvágó

20220084: Comparing Crowdfunding Mechanisms: Introducing the Generalized Moulin-Shenker Mechanism

Andrej Woerner, Sander Onderstal and Arthur Schram

20220083: Empirical Evaluation of Broader Job Search Requirements for Unemployed Workers

Bas van der Klaauw and Heike Vethaak

20220082: Optimal Commodity Taxation When Households Earn Multiple Incomes

Kevin Spiritus

20220081: Why life gets better after age 50, for some: mental well-being and the social norm of work

Coen van de Kraats, Titus Galama and Maarten Lindeboom

20220080: Gender Differences in Private and Public Goal Setting

Jordi Brandts, Sabrine El Baroudi, Stefanie Huber and Christina Rott

20220079: Mental Health Literacy, Beliefs and Demand for Mental Health Support among University Students

Michelle Acampora, Francesco Capozza and Vahid Moghani

20220078: Firm subsidies, financial intermediation, and bank stability

Aleksandr Kazakov, Michael Koetter, Mirko Titze and Lena Tonzer

20220077: Costs and benefits of an Individual Learning Account (ILA): A simulation analysis for the Netherlands

Henri Bussink and Bas ter Weel

20220076: The Demand for Programmable Payments

Charles Kahn and Maarten van Oordt

20220075: Estimating Option Pricing Models Using a Characteristic Function Based Linear State Space Representation

H. Peter Boswijk, Roger Laeven and Evgenii Vladimirov

20220074: Political Regimes, Party Ideological Homogeneity and Polarization

Micael Castanheira and Benoit S Y Crutzen

20220073: Comparative Politics with Intraparty Candidate Selection

Benoit S Y Crutzen and Nicolas Sahuguet

20220072: Long-term returns to local health-care spending

Jakub Cerveny and Jan C. van Ours

20220070: This article establishes the Poisson optional stopping times (POST) method by Lange et al. (2020) as a near-universal method for solving liquidity-constrained American options, or, equivalently, penalised optimal-stopping problems. In this setup, the decision maker is permitted to “stopâ€, i.e. exercise the option, only at a set of Poisson arrival times; this can be viewed as a liquidity constraint or “penalty†that limits access to optionality. We use monotonicity arguments in function space to establish that the POST algorithm either (i) finds the solution or (ii) demonstrates that no solution exists. The monotonicity of POST carries over to the discretised setting, where we additionally show geometric convergence and provide convergence bounds. For jump-diffusion processes, dense matrix factorisation may be avoided by using a suitable operator-splitting method for which we prove convergence. We also highlight a connection with linear complementarity problems (LCPs). We use the POST algorithm to value American options and compute early-exercise boundaries for Kou’s jump-diffusion model and Heston’s stochastic volatility model, illustrating the breadth of application and numerical reliability of the method

Jean-Claude Hessing, Rutger-Jan Lange and Daniel Ralph

20220069: Does economic uncertainty predict real activity in real-time?

Bart Keijsers and Dick van Dijk

20220068: Tax incentives for high skilled migrants: evidence from a preferential tax scheme in the Netherlands

Lisa Marie Timm, Massimo Giuliodori and Paul Muller

20220067: Artificial Collusion: Examining Supracompetitive Pricing by Q-learning Algorithms

Arnoud V. den Boer, Janusz M. Meylahn and Maarten Pieter Schinkel

20220066: Robust Observation-Driven Models Using Proximal-Parameter Updates Abstract We propose an observation-driven modelling framework that permits time variation in the model’s parameters using a proximal-parameter (ProPar) update. ProPar maximizes the observation log-density with respect to the parameter vector, while penalizing the weighted ?2 norm relative to the one-step-ahead prediction. This yields an implicit stochastic-gradient update; taking instead the explicit version would produce the popular class of score-driven models. For log-concave observation densities (even when misspecified), ProPar’s robustness is evident from its muted response to outliers, stability under poorly specified learning rates, and global contractivity towards a pseudo-truth. We illustrate ProPar’s usefulness for estimating time-varying regressions, volatility, and quantiles.Classification-JEL: C10, C32, C51

Rutger-Jan Lange, Bram van Os and Dick van Dijk

20220064: A Note on the Use of Syndicated Loan Data

Isabella Müller, Felix Noth and Lena Tonzer

20220062: Occupational sorting on genes

Thomas Buser, Rafael Ahlskog, Magnus Johannesson and Sven Oskarsson

20220061: Competitiveness and investments under emissions trading

Leon Bremer and Konstantin Sommer

20220060: Optimal Taxation with Multiple Incomes and Types

Kevin Spiritus, Etienne Lehmann and Sander Renes

20220059: Do early episodes of depression and anxiety make homelessness more likely?

Julie Moschion and Jan C. van Ours

20220058: The river pollution claims problem

Yuzhi Yang and Erik Ansink

20220057: International Assortative Matching in the European Labor Market

Thomas Peeters and Jan C. van Ours

20220056: A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change

Richard Tol

20220055: Pitfalls of pay transparency: Evidence from the lab and the field

Katharina Brütt and Huaiping Yuan

20220054: Time Pressure Preferences

Thomas Buser, Roel van Veldhuizen and Yang Zhong

20220053: A Flexible Predictive Density Combination for Large Financial Data Sets in Regular and Crisis Periods

Roberto Casarin, Stefano Grassi, Francesco Ravazzolo and Herman K. van Dijk

20220052: The Impact of Absent Coworkers on Productivity in Teams

Sam Hoey, Thomas Peeters and Jan van Ours

20220050: How to reduce discrimination? Evidence from a field experiment in amateur soccer

Robert Dur, Carlos Gomez-Gonzalez and Cornel Nesseler

20220049: Consumption Choices and Earnings Expectations: Empirical Evidence and Structural Estimation

Christian Stoltenberg and Arne Uhlendorff

20220048: Till debt do us part: strategic divorces and a test of moral hazard

Yeorim Kim, Mauro Mastrogiacomo, Stefan Hochguertel and Hans Bloemen

20220047: Does Growing up in Economic Hard Times Increase Compassion? The Case of Attitudes towards Immigration

Maria Cotofan, Robert Dur and Stephan Meier

20220046: Impulsiveness moderates the effects of exogenous attention on the sensitivity to gains and losses in risky lotteries

Alejandro Hirmas and Jan Engelmann

20220044: Housing returns and intertemporal substitution in consumption: estimates for industrial economies

Lorenzo Pozzi

20220043: Cross-border Electricity Transfers in the case of differentiated Renewable Energy Sources: A Simulation Analysis for Germany and Spain

Andreas Coester, Marjan Hofkes and Elissaios Papyrakis

20220042: Property transfer taxes, residential mobility, and welfare

Daniel Jonas Schmidt

20220041: Carbon Capture: Storage vs. Utilization

Michel Moreaux, Jean-Pierre Amigues, Gerard van der Meijden and Cees Withagen

20220040: Identifying Risk-based Selection in Social Insurance: New Approaches and Findings

Mette Ejrnæs and Stefan Hochguertel

20220039: The effects of market integration on pollution: an analysis of EU enlargements

Konstantin Sommer, Henri de Groot and Franc Klaassen

20220038: Confidence Intervals for Recursive Journal Impact Factors

Johannes König, David Stern and Richard Tol

20220037: The locally partial permission value for games with a permission structure

Hao Wu, Rene van den Brink and Arantza Estevez-Fernandez

20220036: Highway toll allocation

Hao Wu, Rene van den Brink and Arantza Estevez-Fernandez

20220035: Public transport investments, commuting and gentrification: Evidence from Copenhagen

Ismir Mulalic and Jan Rouwendal

20220034: Quantifying Systemic Risk in the Presence of Unlisted Banks: Application to the Dutch Financial Sector

Daniel Dimitrov and Sweder van Wijnbergen

20220033: Prolonged worklife among grandfathers: Spillover effects on grandchildren's educational outcomes

Jim Been, Anne C. Gielen, Marike Knoef and Gloria Moroni

20220032: Advance Information and Consumption Insurance: Evidence from Panel Data

Marcelo Pedroni, Swapnil Singh and Christian Stoltenberg

20220031: Output Divergence in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Euro Area Growing Apart?

Yao Chen and Felix Ward

20220030: The short-term effect of the COVID-19 crisis on employment probabilities of labour-market entrants in the Netherlands

Henri Bussink, Tobias Vervliet and Bas ter Weel

20220029: SHE canÕt afford it and HE doesnÕt want it: The gender gap in the COVID-19 consumption response

Stefanie Huber

20220028: Intergenerational Risk Sharing with Market Liquidity Risk

Daniel Dimitrov

20220027: Human Capital Formation: The Effect of a Miscarriage on Mental Health, Labour Market, and Family Outcomes

Sara Rellstab, Pieter Bakx and Pilar Garci‡-G—mez

20220026: Human Capital Formation: The Importance of Endogenous Longevity

Titus Galama and Hans van Kippersluis

20220025: Good or Bad? Short- versus Long-Term Effects of Multigrading on Child Achievement

Gian Paolo Barbetta, Patrick Chuard-Keller, Giuseppe Sorrenti and Gilberto Turati

20220024: Why Do Temporary Workers Have Higher Disability Insurance Risks Than Permanent Workers?

Pierre Koning, Paul Muller and Roger Prudon