Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers

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202200071: Import competition and domestic transport costs

Michiel Gerritse and Andrea Caragliu

202200065: Can Communication Mitigate Strategic Delays in Investment Timing?

Ayse Gul Mermer, Sander Onderstal and Joep Sonnemans

20260054: Job Matches and Mobility of High Wage Workers in an International Labor Market

Thomas Peeters and Jan C. van Ours

20260053: Racial Gaps in Managerial Career Advancement

Sam Hoey, Thomas Peeters and Stefan Szymanski

20260052: Performing under Pressure: Revisiting Penalty Shootouts

Jan van Ours and Martin van Tuijl

20260051: The Honesty Penalty: Hiding Mistakes in Teams

Randolph Sloof, Julian Tait and Jeroen van de Ven

20260050: The Metric is the Message? How Inequality Metrics Shape Perceptions and Preferences for Redistribution

Ekaterina Siniakova, Oda Sund and Joël van der Weele

20260049: Family Health Spillovers: A Multidimensional Regression Discontinuity Design

Fabrice Kampfen, Owen O'Donnell and Xuezheng Qin

20260048: Investment Targets as Reference Points

Aleksi Pitkäjärvi, Matteo Vacca and Petra Vokata

20260047: Leveraging private information when interests diverge: An experimental comparison of communication versus restricted delegation

Silvia Dominguez-Martinez and Randolph Sloof

20260046: The Micro-Aggregated Phillips Curve

Daniele Aglio and Eric Bartelsman

20260045: Does Stricter Disability Screening Lead to Improved Targeting on Long-term Health and Employment Outcomes?

Chiara Campana, Pierre Koning and Maarten Lindeboom

20260044: Environmental Regulatory Risk

Peter Boswijk, Cees Diks, Simon Trimborn and Matteo Valle

20260043: Flow Variability and Data Sharing in Transboundary River Treaties

Erik Ansink, Jens Gudmundsson and Harold Houba

20260042: The Impact of International Conflict on Cross-Border Commercial Dispute Resolution

Dmitrii Shchetinin and Stanislav Avdeev

20260041: R&D Competition and Cooperation with Distance-Dependent Spillovers

Grega Smrkolj and Florian Wagener

20260040: An Extended Score-Driven Dynamic Factor Model: Constructing Composite Indices in Turbulent Times

Mariia Artemova, Dick van Dijk and Evgenii Vladimirov

20260039: Remote Work and the Corporate Hierarchy

Emanuele Bajo, Aleksi Pitkäjärvi and Matteo Vacca

20260038: Childhood misbehavior, toxic personality and leadership

Thomas Buser

20260037: Too competitive to care? The overall explanatory power of personality for occupational gender segregation

Thomas Buser

20260036: Heterogeneity in the Formation of Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Micro Data

Olena Kostyshyna, Isabelle Salle and Hung Truong

20260035: Platform-Controlled Search and Distortions in Attention Allocation

Xiaoming Cai, Pieter Gautier and Ronald Wolthoff

20260034: Trust in flood protection: Spillovers from prior experience with non-flood hazards

Takis Antonopoulos and David-Jan Jansen

20260033: Measuring Economic Impacts of Environmental Policy Transitions Across Countries

Francisco Blasques, Siem Jan Koopman, Anthony van Veen and Ilka van de Werve

20260032: Road Networks and Tropical Deforestation

Christian Bogmans, Gerard van der Meijden and Cees Withagen

20260031: Fiscal Beliefs & Narratives

Cars Hommes, Isabelle Salle and Julien Pinter

20260030: When OPEC Leads and the Fringe Follows: A Climate Story

Hassan Benchekroun, Simon Elgersma, Gerard van der Meijden and Cees Withagen

20260029: Floods and homeowners' financial resilience: Survey-based evidence from the Netherlands

Dorien de Leeuw and David-Jan Jansen

20260028: A Bright Side of Peter-Principle Promotions

Robert Dur, Kimiyuki Morita and Takeharu Sogo

20260027: Could Country-by-Country Reporting Increase Profit Shifting?

Ruby Doeleman, Dominika Langenmayr and Dirk Schindler

20260026: Characteristic Function-Based Factor Modeling of Affine Jump-Diffusions using Options

H. Peter Boswijk, Roger Laeven, Niels Marijnen and Evgenii Vladimirov

20260025: Electric vehicles reduce driver injury severity but increase risk for other road users

Junjie Lin, Cheng Keat Tang and Jos van Ommeren

20260024: Policing Police Violence: Sheriff-Coroners and the Underreporting of Police Killings

Rubén Poblete-Cazenave

20260023: Barron-Loss Adaptive Estimation

Ramon F. A. de Punder, Mathijs R. G. Dijkstra and Cees G. H. Diks

20260022: Proper and Robust Autoregressive Derivative Adaptive Models

Ramon de Punder

20260021: Collusion in the polluted river problem

Mikel Álvarez-Mozos, Rene van den Brink and Marti Jane-Ballarin

20260020: From Grants to Loans: Mental Health and Adaptive Responses to the 2015 Dutch Student Finance Reform

Nursena Aksunger, Wendy Janssens and Menno Pradhan

20260019: Tier count in traffic-light eco-labels

Erik Ansink and Frederic Klapwijk

20260018: A randomized experiment on improving job search skills of older unemployed workers

Nynke de Groot and Bas van der Klaauw

20260017: Exclusionary Pricing by State-Owned Enterprises: Experimental Evidence

Florian Heine and Jasper Sluijs

20260016: The bank leverage response to tax shield changes

Felix Ward and Casper de Vries

20260015: Pricing and investment by a two-sided monopoly platform

José Luis Moraga-González, Evgenia Motchenkova and Long Hoàng

20260014: Work Requirements in Subsidized Child Care and Maternal Labor Supply

Hans van Kippersluis and Hongliang Zhang

20260013: Use of Shared and Private Information in Long-Term Care Risk Perceptions

Lisa Voois, Teresa Bago d-Uva and Owen O'Donnell

20260012: Leveraging Probability Distortion to Target Prevention: A Cardiovascular Screening Experiment in the Philippines

Aurélien Baillon, Joseph Capuno, Aleli Kraft, Jenny Kudymowa and Owen O'Donnell

20260011: Correcting Beliefs about Job Opportunities and Wages: A Field Experiment on Education Choices

Bart K. de Koning, Robert Dur and Didier Fouarge

20260010: The Effects of Climate Change and Climate Policy on Credit Risk

Matthijs Leegstra, Erik Kole and Rasmus Lönn

20260009: Circular Triads of overperformance in top European football leagues

Jan van Ours

20260008: Intangible Assets and Imperfections in Product and Labor Markets

Eric Bartelsman, Sabien Dobbelaere and Alessandro Zona Mattioli

20260007: Self-driving neural networks for term structure modeling

Sicco Kooiker, Janneke van Brummelen, Julia Schaumburg and Marcin Zamojski

20260006: Position values and fixed-fraction rules for rooted tree cost allocation problems

Rene van den Brink, Elena Gavilan, Conrado Manuel and Takayuki Oishi

20260005: Psychological Pressure and Team Performance

Jan C. van Ours

20260004: Dynamic Regularized Parametric Portfolio Policies

Bram van Os, Rasmus Lönn and Dick van Dijk

20260003: Analysis of the economic and environmental impacts of climate change using RICE model adjusted by methane

Sofia Aleshina, Richard Tol and Valeriya Ignatovskaya

20260002: Estimation and inference for the persistence of extremely high temperatures

Juan Juan Cai, Yicong Lin, Julia Schaumburg and Chenhui Wang

20260001: Mergers and R&D Investment: A Unified Approach

José Luis Moraga-González and Evgenia Motchenkova

20250074: Exponentially weighted estimands and the exponential family: filtering, prediction and smoothing

Simon Donker van Heel and Neil Shephard

20250073: Urban densification to support climate adaptation: Balancing costs and agglomeration benefits in the Netherlands

Yashvant Premchand and Peter Mulder

20250072: Personalized Pricing and Consumer Privacy

Harold Houba and Evgenia Motchenkova

20250071: What Did I Forget? Basket Analysis for Large Assortments Using Transformers

Luuk van Maasakkers, Bas Donkers and Dennis Fok

20250070: What should we say, when we talk about financial stability with the public?

David-Jan Jansen

20250069: Has Poverty Decline in India Faltered Since 2011/12?

Himanshu Himanshu, Peter Lanjouw and Philipp Schirmer

20250068: Far from free: How social proximity affects paternalism

Katharina Brütt and Eve Ernst

20250067: University as a Melting Pot: Long-term Effects of Internationalization

Stanislav Avdeev

20250066: School choice, school switching, and optimal assignment

Hessel Oosterbeek, Tina Rozsos and Bas van der Klaauw

20250065: The role of news and social pressure in shaping U.S. public opinion on climate change

Masako Ikefuji, Jan R. Magnus and Zhehao Wang

20250064: Equilibrium in the Jungle Edgeworth Box

Harold Houba and Roland Iwan Luttens

20250063: Testing for the Absence of Score-Driven Parameter Dynamics

Andre Lucas and Yicong Lin

20250062: Trust and Policy Capacity - Strategic Bureaucrat Appointments under Electoral Incentives

Dana Sisak and Otto Swank

20250061: Monotone optimal trajectories

Niko Jaakkola and Florian Wagener

20250060: Conservation targeting under fragmentation: Evidence from the Dutch river area

Erik Ansink and Jelmer van 't Veer

20250059: On the Limits of Hedging Inflation Risk in Investment Portfolios

Damiaan Chen, Roel Beetsma and Sweder van Wijnbergen

20250058: Carry Trade and Currency Crash Risk

Merve Kutuk and Sweder van Wijnbergen

20250057: Intergenerational Education Persistence: Evidence from Molecular Genetic Data

Rita Dias Pereira and Hans van Kippersluis

20250056: Do shocks divide or unite: Evidence from the Netherlands

Yannick van Etten, Jan Magnus and Tetsuya Matsubayashi

20250055: Good Vibrations: Outcome Bias in Consumer Demand

Jan C. van Ours

20250054: For What It's Worth: Outcome Bias in Managerial Decisions

Jan C. van Ours

20250053: Exploring the crime drop in European Union homicide rates using econometric modelling

Ilka van de Werve, Siem Jan Koopman, Frank Weerman and Arjan Blokland

20250052: The Ransomware Pricing Paradox: An Empirical Study of the Six Stages of Ransomware Negotiations

Tom Meurs, Anna Cartwright, Edward Cartwright, Harold Houba and Daniel Woods

20250051: An Impartial Look at Asset Correlation Stability and Market Structure

Etienne Wijler and Andre Lucas

20250050: The Consistency Principle in the Reordering Problem

Min-Hung Tsay, Youngsub Chun, Rene van den Brink and Chun-Hsien Yeh

20250049: How teams overcome free-riding in strategic experimentation

Katharina Brütt

20250048: More information, less precision: meta-analysis through random effects

Jan Magnus and Andrey Vasnev

20250046: Vertical Integration in Auction Markets

Sander Onderstal and Ruben van Oosten

20250045: A General Randomized Test for Alpha

Daniele Massacci, Lucio Sarno, Lorenzo Trapani and Pierluigi Vallarino

20250044: Reaching Marginalized Job Seekers through Public Employment Services: Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia

Marc Witte, Johanna Roth, Morgan Hardy and Christian Johannes Meyer

20250043: Should Carbon taxes be Preannounced? On Irreversible Investment, Real Options and Carbon Taxes

Sweder van Wijnbergen

20250042: Matrix-Valued Spatial Autoregressions with Dynamic and Robust Heterogeneous Spillovers

Yicong Lin, Andre Lucas and Shiqi Ye

20250041: Revisiting EWMA in High-Frequency Portfolio Optimization: A Comparative Assessment

Laura Capera Romero and Anne Opschoor

20250040: Sinking Land, Sinking Prices? Land Subsidence, Flood Risk, and Property Prices

Lukas Hofmann, Martijn Dröes and Marc Francke

20250039: Conditional Fat Tails and Scale Dynamics for Intraday Discrete Price Changes

Daan Schoemaker, Andre Lucas and Anne Opschoor

20250038: Efficient Information Aggregation: Optimal Structure of Signal Network

Bernd Heidergott, Frank den Hollander, Ines Lindner and Azadeh Parvaneh

20250037: Measuring and Explaining the CDS-Bond Basis Term-Structure Shape and Dynamics

Yonas Khanna, Andre Lucas and Norman Seeger

20250036: Improving Score-Driven Density Forecasts with an Application to Implied Volatility Surface Dynamics

Xia Zou, Yicong Lin and Andre Lucas

20250035: Economic preferences, personality, and voting

Thomas Buser

20250034: Simulation Smoothing for Nonlinear non-Gaussian State Space Models using Machine Learning Methods

Karim Moussa and Siem Jan Koopman

20250033: Timing is Everything: Labor Market Winners and Losers during Boom-Bust Cycles

Erik Katovich, Dominic Parker and Steven Poelhekke

20250032: Gender and Performance in Collaboration: Evidence from Random Student Teams

Max Coveney, Pilar Garcia-Gomez and Teresa Marreiros Bago d'Uva

20250031: Going the distance? A meta-analysis of the deterring effect of distance in tourism

Thomas de Graaff, Elisa Panzera and Henri de Groot

20250030: Sea Level Rise and Optimal Flood Protection under Uncertainty

Taco Prins, Frederick (Rick) van der Ploeg and Ton S. van den Bremer