Simulation Smoothing for State Space Models: An Extremum Monte Carlo Approach

Thomas Buser
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Thomas Buser: University of Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute

No 25-035/I, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers from Tinbergen Institute

Abstract: I analyze Dutch survey data that contains rich information on political preferences, personality traits, and socioeconomic background. I show that voting and political opinions are better predicted by personality and economic preferences than by a rich set of socioeconomic characteristics. Personality differences also explain large parts of the gender and education gaps in voting and ideology. The detailed survey data and large number of parties represented in Dutch parliament allow analysis beyond a simple left-right framework. Personality differences are particularly predictive of support for populist right-wing parties and of attitudes towards social issues, including immigration, climate change and European integration.

JEL-codes: D72 D91 J16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-05-16
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-pol
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