Good Vibrations: Outcome Bias in Consumer Demand

Jan C. van Ours
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Jan C. van Ours: Erasmus University Rotterdam

No 25-055/V, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers from Tinbergen Institute

Abstract: Expectations about future events can be influenced by prior outcomes of similar events, even when those outcomes were partly determined by chance. When such randomness is overlooked in decision-making, outcome bias may arise. This paper investigates the presence of outcome bias in consumer demand for professional football, focusing specifically on stadium attendance in the top divisions of the "big five" European football leagues. The analysis reveals that stadium occupancy rates are influenced by the outcomes of previous matches, even when those outcomes do not accurately reflect the home team’s underlying performance quality. These findings suggest that consumer demand for stadium attendance exhibits outcome bias.

Keywords: utcomebias; professionalfootball; stadiumattendance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C20 L83 M12 Z20 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-09-19
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250055

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