Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers

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20200025: Seasonal Home Advantage in English Professional Football; 1973-2018

Thomas Peeters and Jan van Ours

20200024: Hands on the Wheel, Eyes on the Phone: the Effect of Smart Phone Usage on Road Safety

Devi Brands, Joris Klingen and Francis Ostermeijer

20200023: Smooth marginalized particle filters for dynamic network effect models

Dieter Wang and Julia Schaumburg

20200022: Dutch municipal elections 1998-2018: more localism and fragmentation

Raymond Gradus, Elbert Dijkgraaf and Tjerk Budding

20200021: How Costly is using Livestock as a Saving Device? A Note on Meat Prices during Food Shortages

Wouter Zant

20200020: All symmetric equilibria in differential games with public goods

Niko Jaakkola and Florian Wagener

20200019: On the Influence of Top Journals

Lorenzo Ductor, Sanjeev Goyal, Marco van der Leij and Gustavo Nicolas Paez

20200018: Using admission lotteries to estimate heterogeneous effects of elite schools

Hessel Oosterbeek, Nienke Ruijs and Inge de Wolf

20200017: The complementarity of community-based water and sanitation interventions: evidence from Mozambique

Melinda Vigh, Chris Elbers and Jan Willem Gunning

20200016: Peaceful Agreements to Share a River

Rene van den Brink and Saish Nevrekar

20200015: Sampling properties of the Bayesian posterior mean with an application to WALS estimation

Giuseppe De Luca, Jan Magnus and Franco Peracchi

20200014: Sharing the Surplus and Proportional Values

Zhengxing Zou and Rene van den Brink

20200012: Preventative Cancer Treatments Through Optimizing Tissue Structure

Christopher Graser

20200011: Gender and Willingness to Compete for High Stakes

Dennie van Dolder, Martijn van Assem and Thomas Buser

20200010: Multiple buffer CoCos and their impact on financial stability

Ioana Neamtu

20200009: Dynamic clustering of multivariate panel data

Andre Lucas, Julia Schaumburg and Bernd Schwaab

20200008: Financial Linkages and Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization: Evidence from Europe

Hannes Boehm, Julia Schaumburg and Lena Tonzer

20200007: Crowded trades, market clustering, and price instability

Marc van Kralingen, Diego Garlaschelli, Karolina Scholtus and Iman Lelyveld

20200006: How Banks Respond to Distress: Shifting Risks in Europe’s Banking Union

Mark Mink, Rodney Ramcharan and Iman Lelyveld

20200005: Event Studies in Merger Analysis: Review and an Application Using U.S. TNIC Data

Timo Klein

20200004: Beta observation-driven models with exogenous regressors: a joint analysis of realized correlation and leverage effects

Paolo Gorgi and Siem Jan Koopman

20200003: Leaving the Tub: the Nature and Dynamics of Hypercongestion in a Bathtub Model with a Restricted Downstream Exit

Yue Bao, Erik Verhoef and Paul Koster

20200002: Emergent hypercongestion in Vickrey bottleneck networks

Dario Frascaria, Neil Olver and Erik Verhoef

20200001: OPEC, Unconventional Oil and Climate Change - On the importance of the order of extraction

Hassan Benchekroun, Gerard van der Meijden and Cees Withagen

20190088: More bottle banks only imply a small increase in recycling of glass in the Netherlands

Elbert Dijkgraaf and Raymond Gradus

20190087: RISKY MOMS, RISKY KIDS? FERTILITY AND CRIME AFTER THE FALL OF THE WALL

Arnaud Chevalier and Olivier Marie

20190086: Compensatory Public Good Provision by a Private Cartel

Maarten Pieter Schinkel and Lukas Toth

20190085: Mergers and Innovation Portfolios

Jose Moraga-Gonzalez, Evgenia Motchenkova and Saish Nevrekar

20190084: No clue about bioplastics

Erik Ansink, Louise Wijk and Frederiek Zuidmeer

20190083: Bootstrapping Non-Stationary Stochastic Volatility

H. Peter Boswijk, Giuseppe Cavaliere, Iliyan Georgiev and Anders Rahbek

20190082: Learning from Praise: Evidence from a Field Experiment with Teachers

Maria Cotofan

20190081: The Mental Health Effects of Retirement

Jan van Ours and Matteo Picchio

20190080: Made and Created in China: Super Processors and Two-way Heterogeneity

Zhiyuan Chen, Aksel Erbahar and Yuan Zi

20190079: Decomposing Employment Trends of Disabled Workers

Pierre Koning and Heike Vethaak

20190078: Persistent Effects of Temporary Incentives: Evidence from a Nationwide Health Insurance Experiment

Aurelien Baillon, Joseph Capuno, Owen O'Donnell, Carlos Tan and Kim van Wilgenburg

20190077: A behavioral decomposition of willingness to pay for health insurance

Aurelien Baillon, Aleli Kraft, Owen O'Donnell and Kim van Wilgenburg

20190076: Sequential bankruptcy problems

Arantza Estévez-Fernández, José Manuel Giménez-Gómez and María José Solís-Baltadano

20190075: A World Divided: Refugee Centers, House Prices, and Household Preferences

Martijn Dröes and Hans Koster

20190074: On the effect of anchoring on valuations when the anchor is transparently uninformative

Konstantinos Ioannidis, Theo Offerman and Randolph Sloof

20190073: The cancellation effect at the group level

Aslihan Akdeniz and Matthijs van Veelen

20190072: Axiomatizations of the proportional division value

Zhengxing Zou, Rene van den Brink, Youngsub Chun and Yukihiko Funaki

20190071: Shooting the Messenger? Supply and Demand in Markets for Willful Ignorance

Shaul Shalvi, Ivan Soraperra, Joël van der Weele and Marie Claire Villeval

20190070: Market power in bilateral oligopoly markets with non-expandable infrastructures

Yukihiko Funaki, Harold Houba and Evgenia Motchenkova

20190069: The Old-Age Security Motive for Fertility: Evidence from the Extension of Social Pensions in Namibia

Pauline Rossi and Mathilde Godard

20190068: Malaria Control and Infant Mortality in Africa

Denis Cogneau and Pauline Rossi

20190067: Autonomous cars and dynamic bottleneck congestion revisited: how in-vehicle activities determine aggregate travel patterns

Xiaojuan Yu, Vincent van den Berg and Erik Verhoef

20190066: Data Science in Strategy: Machine learning and text analysis in the study of firm growth

Daan Kolkman and Arjen van Witteloostuijn

20190065: Productivity effects of an exogenous improvement in transport infrastructure: accessibility and the Great Belt Bridge

Bruno De Borger, Ismir Mulalic and Jan Rouwendal

20190064: The Shapley Value and Games with Hierarchies

Encarnacion Algaba and Rene van den Brink

20190063: A Social Norm Nudge to Save More: A Field Experiment at a Retail Bank

Robert Dur, Dimitry Fleming, Marten van Garderen and Max van Lent

20190062: Winning Coalitions in Plurality Voting Democracies

Rene van den Brink, Dinko Dimitrov and Agnieszka Rusinowska

20190061: The Implications of Brexit for UK and EU Regional Competitiveness

Mark Thissen, Frank Oort, Philip McCann, Raquel Ortega-Argilés and Trond Husby

20190060: Funding Shocks and Credit Quality

Enrico Perotti and Magdelena Rola-Janicka

20190059: Cannabis Prices on the Dark Web

Jakub Cerveny and Jan van Ours

20190057: Partially Censored Posterior for Robust and Efficient Risk Evaluation

Agnieszka Borowska, Lennart Hoogerheide, Siem Jan Koopman and Herman van Dijk

20190056: Dynamics in clickthrough and conversion probabilities of paid search advertisements

Anoek Castelein, Dennis Fok and Richard Paap

20190055: Symbolism Matters: The Effect of Same-Sex Marriage Legalization on Partnership Stability

Shuai Chen and Jan van Ours

20190054: Multiple Applications, Competing Mechanisms, and Market Power

James Albrecht, Xiaoming Cai, Pieter Gautier and Susan Vroman

20190053: Do early-ending conditional cash transfer programs crowd out school enrollment?

Martin Wiegand

20190052: Observation-driven Models for Realized Variances and Overnight Returns

Anne Opschoor and Andre Lucas

20190051: Time-varying tail behavior for realized kernels

Anne Opschoor and Andre Lucas

20190050: Deskilling among Manufacturing Production Workers

David Kunst

20190049: "I" on You: Identity in the Dictator Game

Anita Kopányi-Peuker and Jin Di Zheng

20190048: A Theory on Media Bias and Elections

Junze Sun, Arthur Schram and Randolph Sloof

20190047: Mobile Phones and Mozambique Traders: What is the Size of Reduced Search Costs and Who Benefits?

Wouter Zant

20190046: Participatory Value Evaluation versus Cost-Benefit Analysis: comparing recommendations in the context of urban mobility investments

Niek Mouter, Paul Koster and Thijs Dekker

20190045: Team Incentives, Social Cohesion, and Performance: A Natural Field Experiment

Josse Delfgaauw, Robert Dur, Okemena Onemu and Joeri Sol

20190044: Modelling Strategy and Net Employment Effects of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency: A Meta-Regression

Spyridon Stavropoulos and Martijn Burger

20190043: Adaptive Testing for Cointegration with Nonstationary Volatility

H. Peter Boswijk and Yang Zu

20190042: Anticipatory Anxiety and Wishful Thinking

Jan Engelmann, Mael Lebreton, Peter Schwardmann, Joël van der Weele and Li-Ang Chang

20190041: Are Women Status-Ranking Averse?

Jordi Brandts, Klarita Gërxhani and Arthur Schram

20190040: Anticipating Peer Ranking Causes Hormonal Adaptations that Benefit Cognitive Performance

Carsten de Dreu, Klarita Gërxhani and Arthur Schram

20190039: Credit Default Swap Regulation in Experimental Bond Markets

Matthias Weber, John Duffy and Arthur Schram

20190038: The Heterogeneous Effects of Early Track Assignment on Cognitive and Non-cognitive Skills

Maria Cotofan, Ron Diris and Trudie Schils

20190037: The impact of WTO accession on Chinese firms' product and labor market power

Quint Wiersma

20190036: Targeting Disability Insurance Applications with Screening

Mathilde Godard, Pierre Koning and Maarten Lindeboom

20190035: Measuring the Routine and Non-Routine Task Content of 427 Four-Digit ISCO-08 Occupations

Emil Mihaylov and Kea Tijdens

20190034: Can Collusion Promote Corporate Social Responsibility? Evidence from the Lab

Francisco Gomez Martinez, Sander Onderstal and Maarten Pieter Schinkel

20190033: Premature Deindustrialization through the Lens of Occupations: Which Jobs, Why, and Where?

Francisco David Kunst

20190032: Asset-Based Lending

Suzanne Bijkerk and Casper de Vries

20190031: Cognitive Biases and Consumer Sentiment

Erik Kole, Liesbeth Noordegraaf-Eelens and Bas Vringer

20190030: Discounting the Future: on Climate Change, Ambiguity Aversion and Epstein-Zin Preferences

Stan Olijslagers and Sweder van Wijnbergen

20190029: Constructing and Using Double-adjusted Alphas to Analyze Mutual Fund Performance

Erik Kole and Reza Brink

20190028: The Effect of Futures Markets on the Stability of Commodity Prices

Johan de Jong, Joep Sonnemans and Jan Tuinstra

20190027: Peer Effects and Risk Sharing in Experimental Asset Markets

Paul Gortner and Joël van der Weele

20190026: The Degree Ratio Ranking Method for Directed Networks

Rene van den Brink and Agnieszka Rusinowska

20190025: Forecast Density Combinations with Dynamic Learning for Large Data Sets in Economics and Finance

Roberto Casarin, Stefano Grassi, Francesco Ravazzollo and Herman van Dijk

20190024: An introduction to Participatory Value Evaluation

Niek Mouter, Paul Koster and Thijs Dekker

20190023: The Welfare Effects of Greenbelt Policy: Evidence from England

Hans Koster

20190022: The alpha-constant-sum games

Wenna Wang, Rene van den Brink, Hao Sun, Genjiu Xu and Zhengxing Zou

20190021: Can Google Search Data Help Predict Macroeconomic Series?

Robin Niesert, Jochem Oorschot, Chris Veldhuisen, Kester Brons and Rutger-Jan Lange

20190020: Residential parking costs and car ownership: Implications for parking policy and automated vehicles

Francis Ostermeijer, Hans Koster and Jos van Ommeren

20190019: Endogenous Repo Cycles

Makoto Watanabe, Vyacheslav Arbuzov, Yu Awaya and Hiroki Fukai

20190018: Bayesian Risk Forecasting for Long Horizons

Agnieszka Borowska, Lennart Hoogerheide and Siem Jan Koopman

20190017: Regulating dynamic congestion externalities with tradable credit schemes: does a unique equilibrium exist?

Yue Bao, Erik Verhoef and Paul Koster

20190016: Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments

Cars Hommes, Anita Kopányi-Peuker and Joep Sonnemans

20190015: The Global Macroeconomics of a Trade War: The EAGLE model on the US-China trade conflict

Wilko Bolt, Kostas(Konstantinos) Mavromatis and Sweder van Wijnbergen

20190014: State-aided Price Coordination in the Dutch Mortgage Market

Mark Dijkstra and Maarten Pieter Schinkel

20190013: Closed-Form Multi-Factor Copula Models with Observation-Driven Dynamic Factor Loadings

Anne Opschoor, Andre Lucas, Istvan Barra and Dick van Dijk

20190012: Transformed Perturbation Solutions for Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models

Francisco (F.) Blasques and Marc Nientker