Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers

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20200066: Disentangling Retirement and Savings Responses

Maarten Lindeboom and Raymond Montizaan

20200065: Maternal Stress and Offspring Lifelong Labor Market Outcomes

Vincenzo Atella, Edoardo Di Porto, Joanna Kopinska and Maarten Lindeboom

20200064: A Macro-Financial Perspective to Analyse Maturity Mismatch and Default

Xuan Wang

20200063: The evolution of morality

Matthijs van Veelen

20200062: Homo Moralis and regular altruists – preference evolution for when they disagree

Aslihan Akdeniz, Christopher Graser and Matthijs van Veelen

20200061: We develop a Bayesian method for heterogeneous variable selection in both linear and nonlinear panel data models, where variable selection takes place at the individual level and non-zero parameters are allowed to differ across individuals. Each individual-specific parameter is either zero or comes from a Dirichlet process mixture of multivariate normals. For inference, we develop an efficient MCMC sampler. In a Monte Carlo study, we show that our method accurately captures complex continuous cross-sectional heterogeneity and individual-specific variable selection, features standard approaches fail to capture jointly. An application on data from a discrete choice experiment on food choices shows that accounting for heterogeneous variable selection and non-normal continuous heterogeneity uncovers substantial variable non-attendance and an improved out-of-sample fit

Anoek Castelein, Stan Koobs, Dennis Fok and Richard Paap

20200060: Cyclicality of Add-on Pricing: Evidence from Extended Warranties

Branko Boskovic, Sacha Kapoor, Agnieszka Markiewicz and Barry Scholnick

20200059: Curbing Carbon: An Experiment on Uncertainty and Information about CO2 emissions

Davide Pace and Joël van der Weele

20200058: The Power to Protect: Household Bargaining and Female Condom Use

Rachel Cassidy, Marije Groot Bruinderink, Wendy Janssens and Karlijn Morsink

20200057: Accelerating Peak Dating in a Dynamic Factor Markov-Switching Model

Bram van Os and Dick van Dijk

20200056: Collaboration in Bipartite Networks, with an Application to Coauthorship Networks

Chih-Sheng Hsieh, Michael König, Xiaodong Liu and Christian Zimmermann

20200055: Left Behind Voters, Anti-Elitism and Popular Will

Benoit Crutzen, Dana Sisak and Otto Swank

20200054: Compromising between the proportional and equal division values: axiomatization, consistency and implementation

Zhengxing Zou, Rene van den Brink and Yukihiko Funaki

20200053: Genetic Fortune: Winning or Losing Education, Income, and Health

Hyeokmoon Kweon, Casper A.P. Burik, Richard Karlsson Linner, Ronald de Vlaming, Aysu Okbay, Daphne Martschenko, Kathryn Paige Harden, Thomas A. DiPrete and Philipp Koellinger

20200052: Bellman filtering for state-space models

Rutger-Jan Lange

20200051: Business models for interoperable mobility services

Vincent van den Berg, Henk Meurs and Erik Verhoef

20200050: Banks, Money, and the Zero Lower Bound on Deposit Rates

Michael Kumhof and Xuan Wang

20200049: Does Losing Lead to Winning? An Empirical Analysis for Four Different Sports

Bouke Klein Teeselink, Martijn J. van den Assem and Dennie van Dolder

20200048: Can competitiveness predict education and labor market outcomes? Evidence from incentivized choice and survey measures

Thomas Buser, Muriel Niederle and Hessel Oosterbeek

20200047: Consideration of others and consideration of future consequences predict cooperation in an acute Social Dilemma: An application to COVID-19

M.A.J. van Hulsen, K.I.M. Rohde and Job van Exel

20200046: The perception of climate sensitivity: Revealing priors from posteriors

Masako Ikefuji and Jan Magnus

20200045: The Political Economy of a Diverse Monetary Union

Enrico Perotti and Oscar Soons

20200044: Support for Small Businesses amid COVID-19

Charles Goodhart, Dimitrios Tsomocos and Xuan Wang

20200043: Equal Loss under Separatorization and Egalitarian Values

Zhengxing Zou and Rene van den Brink

20200042: On the Benefits of Being Alone: Scheduling Changes, Intensity of Competition and Dynamic Airline Pricing

Yannis Kerkemezos and Bas Karreman

20200041: Can Private Equity Funds Act as Strategic Buyers? Evidence from Buy-and-Build Strategies

Dyaran Bansraj, Han Smit and Vadym Volosovych

20200040: The short-term economic effects of COVID-19 and risk-coping strategies of low-income households in Kenya: A rapid analysis using weekly financial household data

Wendy Janssens, Menno Pradhan, Richard de Groot, Estelle Sidze, Hermann Donfouet and Amanuel Abajobir

20200039: Zero-diagonality as a linear structure

Jan Magnus and Enrique Sentana

20200038: Optimal Taxation of Capital Income with Heterogeneous Rates of Return

Aart Gerritsen, Bas Jacobs, Alexandra V. Rusu and Kevin Spiritus

20200037: Less School (Costs), More (Female) Education? Lessons from Egypt Reducing Years of Compulsory Schooling

Ahmed Elsayed and Olivier Marie

20200036: Exposure to Intimate Partner Violence and Children’s Dynamic Skill Accumulation: Evidence from a UK Longitudinal Study

Dan Anderberg and Gloria Moroni

20200035: The Jacobian of the exponential function

Jan Magnus, Henk G.J. Pijls and Enrique Sentana

20200034: The transfer system in European football: a pro-competitive no-poaching agreement?

Samuel Hoey, Thomas Peeters and Francesco Principe

20200033: Individual weighted excess and least square values

Xia Zhang, Rene van den Brink, Arantza Estevez-Fernandez and Hao Sun

20200032: If Sick-Leave becomes More Costly, Will I go back to Work? Could it be too soon?

Olivier Marie and Judit Vall Castello

20200031: Spillovers in Childbearing Decisions and Fertility Transitions: Evidence from China

Pauline Rossi and Yun Xiao

20200030: Educational Choice, Initial Wage and Wage Growth

Jacopo Mazza and Hans van Ophem

20200029: Lie detection: A strategic analysis of the Verifiability Approach

Konstantinos Ioannidis, Theo Offerman and Randolph Sloof

20200028: COMMIT TO A CREDIBLE PATH OF RISING CO2 PRICES

Sweder van Wijnbergen, Frederick (Rick) van der Ploeg and Stan Olijslagers

20200027: Risk attitude and air pollution: Evidence from chess*

Joris Klingen and Jos van Ommeren

20200026: Election systems, the “beauty premium” in politics, and the beauty of dissent

Niklas Potrafke, Marcus Rösch and Heinrich Ursprung

20200025: Seasonal Home Advantage in English Professional Football; 1973-2018

Thomas Peeters and Jan van Ours

20200024: Hands on the Wheel, Eyes on the Phone: the Effect of Smart Phone Usage on Road Safety

Devi Brands, Joris Klingen and Francis Ostermeijer

20200023: Smooth marginalized particle filters for dynamic network effect models

Dieter Wang and Julia Schaumburg

20200022: Dutch municipal elections 1998-2018: more localism and fragmentation

Raymond Gradus, Elbert Dijkgraaf and Tjerk Budding

20200021: How Costly is using Livestock as a Saving Device? A Note on Meat Prices during Food Shortages

Wouter Zant

20200020: All symmetric equilibria in differential games with public goods

Niko Jaakkola and Florian Wagener

20200019: On the Influence of Top Journals

Lorenzo Ductor, Sanjeev Goyal, Marco van der Leij and Gustavo Nicolas Paez

20200018: Using admission lotteries to estimate heterogeneous effects of elite schools

Hessel Oosterbeek, Nienke Ruijs and Inge de Wolf

20200017: The complementarity of community-based water and sanitation interventions: evidence from Mozambique

Melinda Vigh, Chris Elbers and Jan Willem Gunning

20200016: Peaceful Agreements to Share a River

Rene van den Brink and Saish Nevrekar

20200015: Sampling properties of the Bayesian posterior mean with an application to WALS estimation

Giuseppe De Luca, Jan Magnus and Franco Peracchi

20200014: Sharing the Surplus and Proportional Values

Zhengxing Zou and Rene van den Brink

20200012: Preventative Cancer Treatments Through Optimizing Tissue Structure

Christopher Graser

20200011: Gender and Willingness to Compete for High Stakes

Dennie van Dolder, Martijn van Assem and Thomas Buser

20200010: Multiple buffer CoCos and their impact on financial stability

Ioana Neamtu

20200009: Dynamic clustering of multivariate panel data

Andre Lucas, Julia Schaumburg and Bernd Schwaab

20200008: Financial Linkages and Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization: Evidence from Europe

Hannes Boehm, Julia Schaumburg and Lena Tonzer

20200007: Crowded trades, market clustering, and price instability

Marc van Kralingen, Diego Garlaschelli, Karolina Scholtus and Iman Lelyveld

20200006: How Banks Respond to Distress: Shifting Risks in Europe’s Banking Union

Mark Mink, Rodney Ramcharan and Iman Lelyveld

20200005: Event Studies in Merger Analysis: Review and an Application Using U.S. TNIC Data

Timo Klein

20200004: Beta observation-driven models with exogenous regressors: a joint analysis of realized correlation and leverage effects

Paolo Gorgi and Siem Jan Koopman

20200003: Leaving the Tub: the Nature and Dynamics of Hypercongestion in a Bathtub Model with a Restricted Downstream Exit

Yue Bao, Erik Verhoef and Paul Koster

20200002: Emergent hypercongestion in Vickrey bottleneck networks

Dario Frascaria, Neil Olver and Erik Verhoef

20200001: OPEC, Unconventional Oil and Climate Change - On the importance of the order of extraction

Hassan Benchekroun, Gerard van der Meijden and Cees Withagen

20190088: More bottle banks only imply a small increase in recycling of glass in the Netherlands

Elbert Dijkgraaf and Raymond Gradus

20190087: RISKY MOMS, RISKY KIDS? FERTILITY AND CRIME AFTER THE FALL OF THE WALL

Arnaud Chevalier and Olivier Marie

20190086: Compensatory Public Good Provision by a Private Cartel

Maarten Pieter Schinkel and Lukas Toth

20190085: Mergers and Innovation Portfolios

Jose Moraga-Gonzalez, Evgenia Motchenkova and Saish Nevrekar

20190084: No clue about bioplastics

Erik Ansink, Louise Wijk and Frederiek Zuidmeer

20190083: Bootstrapping Non-Stationary Stochastic Volatility

H. Peter Boswijk, Giuseppe Cavaliere, Iliyan Georgiev and Anders Rahbek

20190082: Learning from Praise: Evidence from a Field Experiment with Teachers

Maria Cotofan

20190081: The Mental Health Effects of Retirement

Jan van Ours and Matteo Picchio

20190080: Made and Created in China: Super Processors and Two-way Heterogeneity

Zhiyuan Chen, Aksel Erbahar and Yuan Zi

20190079: Decomposing Employment Trends of Disabled Workers

Pierre Koning and Heike Vethaak

20190078: Persistent Effects of Temporary Incentives: Evidence from a Nationwide Health Insurance Experiment

Aurelien Baillon, Joseph Capuno, Owen O'Donnell, Carlos Tan and Kim van Wilgenburg

20190077: A behavioral decomposition of willingness to pay for health insurance

Aurelien Baillon, Aleli Kraft, Owen O'Donnell and Kim van Wilgenburg

20190076: Sequential bankruptcy problems

Arantza Estévez-Fernández, José Manuel Giménez-Gómez and María José Solís-Baltadano

20190075: A World Divided: Refugee Centers, House Prices, and Household Preferences

Martijn Dröes and Hans Koster

20190074: On the effect of anchoring on valuations when the anchor is transparently uninformative

Konstantinos Ioannidis, Theo Offerman and Randolph Sloof

20190073: The cancellation effect at the group level

Aslihan Akdeniz and Matthijs van Veelen

20190072: Axiomatizations of the proportional division value

Zhengxing Zou, Rene van den Brink, Youngsub Chun and Yukihiko Funaki

20190071: Shooting the Messenger? Supply and Demand in Markets for Willful Ignorance

Shaul Shalvi, Ivan Soraperra, Joël van der Weele and Marie Claire Villeval

20190070: Market power in bilateral oligopoly markets with non-expandable infrastructures

Yukihiko Funaki, Harold Houba and Evgenia Motchenkova

20190069: The Old-Age Security Motive for Fertility: Evidence from the Extension of Social Pensions in Namibia

Pauline Rossi and Mathilde Godard

20190068: Malaria Control and Infant Mortality in Africa

Denis Cogneau and Pauline Rossi

20190067: Autonomous cars and dynamic bottleneck congestion revisited: how in-vehicle activities determine aggregate travel patterns

Xiaojuan Yu, Vincent van den Berg and Erik Verhoef

20190066: Data Science in Strategy: Machine learning and text analysis in the study of firm growth

Daan Kolkman and Arjen van Witteloostuijn

20190065: Productivity effects of an exogenous improvement in transport infrastructure: accessibility and the Great Belt Bridge

Bruno De Borger, Ismir Mulalic and Jan Rouwendal

20190064: The Shapley Value and Games with Hierarchies

Encarnacion Algaba and Rene van den Brink

20190063: A Social Norm Nudge to Save More: A Field Experiment at a Retail Bank

Robert Dur, Dimitry Fleming, Marten van Garderen and Max van Lent

20190062: Winning Coalitions in Plurality Voting Democracies

Rene van den Brink, Dinko Dimitrov and Agnieszka Rusinowska

20190061: The Implications of Brexit for UK and EU Regional Competitiveness

Mark Thissen, Frank Oort, Philip McCann, Raquel Ortega-Argilés and Trond Husby

20190060: Funding Shocks and Credit Quality

Enrico Perotti and Magdelena Rola-Janicka

20190059: Cannabis Prices on the Dark Web

Jakub Cerveny and Jan van Ours

20190057: Partially Censored Posterior for Robust and Efficient Risk Evaluation

Agnieszka Borowska, Lennart Hoogerheide, Siem Jan Koopman and Herman van Dijk

20190056: Dynamics in clickthrough and conversion probabilities of paid search advertisements

Anoek Castelein, Dennis Fok and Richard Paap

20190055: Symbolism Matters: The Effect of Same-Sex Marriage Legalization on Partnership Stability

Shuai Chen and Jan van Ours

20190054: Multiple Applications, Competing Mechanisms, and Market Power

James Albrecht, Xiaoming Cai, Pieter Gautier and Susan Vroman

20190053: Do early-ending conditional cash transfer programs crowd out school enrollment?

Martin Wiegand