Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers

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20220086: Disinformation for Hire: Examining the Production of False COVID-19 Information

Alain Cohn, Jan Stoop and Hatim A. Rahman

20220085: Firm Consolidation and Labor Market Outcomes

Sabien Dobbelaere, Grace McCormack, Daniel Prinz and Sándor Sóvágó

20220083: Empirical Evaluation of Broader Job Search Requirements for Unemployed Workers

Bas van der Klaauw and Heike Vethaak

20220082: Optimal Commodity Taxation When Households Earn Multiple Incomes

Kevin Spiritus

20220081: Why life gets better after age 50, for some: mental well-being and the social norm of work

Coen van de Kraats, Titus Galama and Maarten Lindeboom

20220080: Gender Differences in Private and Public Goal Setting

Jordi Brandts, Sabrine El Baroudi, Stefanie Huber and Christina Rott

20220079: Mental Health Literacy, Beliefs and Demand for Mental Health Support among University Students

Michelle Acampora, Francesco Capozza and Vahid Moghani

20220078: Firm subsidies, financial intermediation, and bank stability

Aleksandr Kazakov, Michael Koetter, Mirko Titze and Lena Tonzer

20220077: Costs and benefits of an Individual Learning Account (ILA): A simulation analysis for the Netherlands

Henri Bussink and Bas ter Weel

20220076: The Demand for Programmable Payments

Charles Kahn and Maarten van Oordt

20220075: Estimating Option Pricing Models Using a Characteristic Function Based Linear State Space Representation

H. Peter Boswijk, Roger Laeven and Evgenii Vladimirov

20220074: Political Regimes, Party Ideological Homogeneity and Polarization

Micael Castanheira and Benoit Crutzen

20220073: Comparative Politics with Intraparty Candidate Selection

Benoit Crutzen and Nicolas Sahuguet

20220072: Long-term returns to local health-care spending

Jakub Cerveny and Jan C. van Ours

20220070: This article establishes the Poisson optional stopping times (POST) method by Lange et al. (2020) as a near-universal method for solving liquidity-constrained American options, or, equivalently, penalised optimal-stopping problems. In this setup, the decision maker is permitted to “stopâ€, i.e. exercise the option, only at a set of Poisson arrival times; this can be viewed as a liquidity constraint or “penalty†that limits access to optionality. We use monotonicity arguments in function space to establish that the POST algorithm either (i) finds the solution or (ii) demonstrates that no solution exists. The monotonicity of POST carries over to the discretised setting, where we additionally show geometric convergence and provide convergence bounds. For jump-diffusion processes, dense matrix factorisation may be avoided by using a suitable operator-splitting method for which we prove convergence. We also highlight a connection with linear complementarity problems (LCPs). We use the POST algorithm to value American options and compute early-exercise boundaries for Kou’s jump-diffusion model and Heston’s stochastic volatility model, illustrating the breadth of application and numerical reliability of the method

Jean-Claude Hessing, Rutger-Jan Lange and Daniel Ralph

20220069: Does economic uncertainty predict real activity in real-time?

Bart Keijsers and Dick van Dijk

20220068: Tax incentives for high skilled migrants: evidence from a preferential tax scheme in the Netherlands

Lisa Marie Timm, Massimo Giuliodori and Paul Muller

20220067: Artificial Collusion: Examining Supracompetitive Pricing by Q-learning Algorithms

Arnoud V. den Boer, Janusz M. Meylahn and Maarten Pieter Schinkel

20220066: Implicit score-driven filters for time-varying parameter models

Rutger-Jan Lange, Bram van Os and Dick van Dijk

20220064: A Note on the Use of Syndicated Loan Data

Isabella Müller, Felix Noth and Lena Tonzer

20220063: Goldilocks: American precious metals and the Rise of the West

Yao Chen, Nuno Palma and Felix Ward

20220062: Occupational sorting on genes

Thomas Buser, Rafael Ahlskog, Magnus Johannesson and Sven Oskarsson

20220061: Competitiveness and investments under emissions trading

Leon Bremer and Konstantin Sommer

20220060: Optimal Taxation with Multiple Incomes and Types

Kevin Spiritus, Etienne Lehmann and Sander Renes

20220059: Do early episodes of depression and anxiety make homelessness more likely?

Julie Moschion and Jan C. van Ours

20220058: The river pollution claims problem

Yuzhi Yang and Erik Ansink

20220057: International Assortative Matching in the European Labor Market

Thomas Peeters and Jan C. van Ours

20220056: A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change

Richard Tol

20220055: Pitfalls of pay transparency: Evidence from the lab and the field

Katharina Brütt and Huaiping Yuan

20220054: Time Pressure Preferences

Thomas Buser, Roel van Veldhuizen and Yang Zhong

20220053: A Flexible Predictive Density Combination for Large Financial Data Sets in Regular and Crisis Periods

Roberto Casarin, Stefano Grassi, Francesco Ravazzolo and Herman van Dijk

20220052: The Impact of Absent Coworkers on Productivity in Teams

Sam Hoey, Thomas Peeters and Jan van Ours

20220050: How to reduce discrimination? Evidence from a field experiment in amateur soccer

Robert Dur, Carlos Gomez-Gonzalez and Cornel Nesseler

20220049: Consumption Choices and Earnings Expectations: Empirical Evidence and Structural Estimation

Christian Stoltenberg and Arne Uhlendorff

20220048: Till debt do us part: strategic divorces and a test of moral hazard

Yeorim Kim, Mauro Mastrogiacomo, Stefan Hochguertel and Hans Bloemen

20220047: Does Growing up in Economic Hard Times Increase Compassion? The Case of Attitudes towards Immigration

Maria Cotofan, Robert Dur and Stephan Meier

20220046: Impulsiveness moderates the effects of exogenous attention on the sensitivity to gains and losses in risky lotteries

Alejandro Hirmas and Jan Engelmann

20220044: Housing returns and intertemporal substitution in consumption: estimates for industrial economies

Lorenzo Pozzi

20220043: Cross-border Electricity Transfers in the case of differentiated Renewable Energy Sources: A Simulation Analysis for Germany and Spain

Andreas Coester, Marjan Hofkes and Elissaios Papyrakis

20220042: Property transfer taxes, residential mobility, and welfare

Daniel Jonas Schmidt

20220041: Carbon Capture: Storage vs. Utilization

Michel Moreaux, Jean-Pierre Amigues, Gerard van der Meijden and Cees Withagen

20220040: Identifying Risk-based Selection in Social Insurance: New Approaches and Findings

Mette Ejrnæs and Stefan Hochguertel

20220039: The effects of market integration on pollution: an analysis of EU enlargements

Konstantin Sommer, Henri de Groot and Franc Klaassen

20220038: Confidence Intervals for Recursive Journal Impact Factors

Johannes König, David Stern and Richard Tol

20220037: The locally partial permission value for games with a permission structure

Hao Wu, Rene van den Brink and Arantza Estevez-Fernandez

20220036: Highway toll allocation

Hao Wu, Rene van den Brink and Arantza Estevez-Fernandez

20220035: Public transport investments, commuting and gentrification: Evidence from Copenhagen

Ismir Mulalic and Jan Rouwendal

20220034: Quantifying Systemic Risk in the Presence of Unlisted Banks: Application to the Dutch Financial Sector

Daniel Dimitrov and Sweder van Wijnbergen

20220033: Prolonged worklife among grandfathers: Spillover effects on grandchildren's educational outcomes

Jim Been, Anne Gielen, Marike Knoef and Gloria Moroni

20220032: Advance Information and Consumption Insurance: Evidence from Panel Data

Marcelo Pedroni, Swapnil Singh and Christian Stoltenberg

20220031: Output Divergence in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Euro Area Growing Apart?

Yao Chen and Felix Ward

20220030: The short-term effect of the COVID-19 crisis on employment probabilities of labour-market entrants in the Netherlands

Henri Bussink, Tobias Vervliet and Bas ter Weel

20220029: SHE canÕt afford it and HE doesnÕt want it: The gender gap in the COVID-19 consumption response

Stefanie Huber

20220028: Intergenerational Risk Sharing with Market Liquidity Risk

Daniel Dimitrov

20220027: Human Capital Formation: The Effect of a Miscarriage on Mental Health, Labour Market, and Family Outcomes

Sara Rellstab, Pieter Bakx and Pilar Garci‡-G—mez

20220026: Human Capital Formation: The Importance of Endogenous Longevity

Titus Galama and Hans van Kippersluis

20220025: Good or Bad? Short- versus Long-Term Effects of Multigrading on Child Achievement

Gian Paolo Barbetta, Patrick Chuard-Keller, Giuseppe Sorrenti and Gilberto Turati

20220024: Why Do Temporary Workers Have Higher Disability Insurance Risks Than Permanent Workers?

Pierre Koning, Paul Muller and Roger Prudon

20220023: Weighting the Waiting: Intertemporal Social Preferences

Kirsten I.M. Rohde, Job van Exel and Merel A.J. van Hulsen

20220022: Asymptotic properties of the weighted average least squares (WALS) estimator

Giuseppe De Luca, Jan Magnus and Franco Peracchi

20220021: Fertility and Parental Retirement

Julius Ilciukas

20220020: Personalized Pricing, Competition and Welfare

Harold Houba, Evgenia Motchenkova and Hui Wang

20220019: The Economics and Econometrics of Gene-Environment Interplay

Pietro Biroli, Titus Galama, Stephanie von Hinke, Hans van Kippersluis, Cornelius Rietveld and Kevin Thom

20220018: Optimal Commodity Taxation Under Non-linear Income Taxation

Kevin Spiritus

20220017: Risk-Taking, Competition and Uncertainty: Do Contingent Convertible (CoCo) Bonds Increase the Risk Appetite of Banks?

Mahmoud Fatouh, Ioana Neamtu and Sweder van Wijnbergen

20220016: Habitual Communication

Konstantinos Ioannidis

20220015: The Emerging Autonomy–Stability Choice for Stablecoins

Maarten van Oordt

20220014: Do firms or workers drive the foreign acquisition wage premium?

Marcus Rösch, Michiel Gerritse, Bas Karreman, Frank Oort and Bart Loog

20220013: A Flexible Predictive Density Combination Model for Large Financial Data Sets in Regular and Crisis Periods

Roberto Casarin, Stefano Grassi, Francesco Ravazzolo and Herman van Dijk

20220012: Responsive state-dependent or habitual state-independent congestion pricing under dynamic congestion

Xiaojuan Yu, Vincent van den Berg and ZhiChun Li

20220011: A Smooth Shadow-Rate Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model for Yields at the Zero Lower Bound

Daan Opschoor and Michel van der Wel

20220010: Do highway widening reduce congestion?

Ioulia Ossokina, Jos van Ommeren and Henk van Mourik

20220004: Autonomous cars and activity-based bottleneck model: How do in-vehicle activities determine aggregate travel patterns?

Xiaojuan Yu, Vincent van den Berg and Erik Verhoef

20220002: Business models for Mobility as an Service

Vincent van den Berg, Henk Meurs and Erik Verhoef

20210101: The corporate calendar and the timing of share repurchases and equity compensation

Ingolf Dittmann, Amy Yazhu Li, Stefan Obernberger and Jiaqi Zheng

20210088: Using Genes to Explore the Effects of Cognitive and Non-cognitive Skills on Education and Labor Market Outcomes

Thomas Buser, Rafael Ahlskog, Magnus Johannesson, Philipp Koellinger and Sven Oskarsson

20210080: Moments, Shocks and Spillovers in Markov-switching VAR Models

Erik Kole and Dick van Dijk

20210063: Corporate Social Responsibility by Joint Agreement

Maarten Pieter Schinkel and Leonard Treuren

20210061: Unemployment and tax design

Albert Jan Hummel

20210060: On the Foundations of Competitive Search Equilibrium with and without Market Maker

James Albrecht, Xiaoming Cai, Pieter Gautier and Susan Vroman

20210059: COVID-19, Credit Risk and Macro Fundamentals

Anna Dubinova, Andre Lucas and Sean Telg

20210058: Search, Screening and Sorting

Xiaoming Cai, Pieter Gautier and Ronald Wolthoff

20210057: Common and Idiosyncratic Conditional Volatility Factors: Theory and Empirical Evidence

Francisco Blasques, Enzo D'Innocenzo and Siem Jan Koopman

20210056: Vector Autoregressions with Dynamic Factor Coefficients and Conditionally Heteroskedastic Errors

Paolo Gorgi, Siem Jan Koopman and Julia Schaumburg

20210055: The Effects of Usury Ceilings on Consumers Welfare: Evidence from the Microcredit Market in Colombia

Laura Marcela Capera Romero

20210054: Early-life Famine Exposure, Hunger Recall and Later-life Health

Zichen Deng and Maarten Lindeboom

20210053: Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil

Knut Are Aastveit, Jamie Cross and Herman van Dijk

20210052: On existence of private unemployment insurance with advance information on future job losses

Piotr Denderski and Christian Stoltenberg

20210051: Monopsony power, income taxation and welfare

Albert Jan Hummel

20210050: Voting right rotation, behavior of committee members and financial market reactions: Evidence from the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee

Michael Ehrmann, Robin Tietz and Bauke Visser

20210049: Reputation Shocks and Strategic Responses in Electoral Campaigns

Rubén Poblete Cazenave

20210048: How Sensitive are Sports Fans to Unemployment?

J Reade and Jan van Ours

20210047: Oil discoveries and protectionism: role of news effects

Fidel Sebastian-Perez, Ohad Raveh and Frederick (Rick) van der Ploeg

20210046: The risk-adjusted carbon price

Frederick (Rick) van der Ploeg and Ton van den Bremer

20210045: On current and future carbon prices in a risky world

Stan Olijslagers, Frederick (Rick) van der Ploeg and Sweder van Wijnbergen

20210044: Concentration of power at the editorial boards of economics journals

Lorenzo Ductor and Bauke Visser

20210043: When a coauthor joins an editorial board

Lorenzo Ductor and Bauke Visser

20210042: Bias in expert product reviews

Ben Vollaard and Jan van Ours

20210041: Leaders, Factions and Electoral Success

Benoit Crutzen and Sabine Flamand

20210040: Clustering Dynamics and Persistence for Financial Multivariate Panel Data

Igor Custodio João, Andre Lucas and Julia Schaumburg