Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers

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20080102: Beating the Random Walk: a Performance Assessment of Long-term Interest Rate Forecasts

Frank Den Butter and Pieter W. Jansen

20080101: Washington meets Wall Street: A Closer Examination of the Presidential Cycle Puzzle

R. Kraeussl, Andre Lucas, D. Rijsbergen, Pieter van der Sluis and E. Vrugt

20080100: A K-sample Homogeneity Test based on the Quantification of the p-p Plot

Jeroen Hinloopen, Rien Wagenvoort and Charles Marrewijk

20080099: Transaction Costs in Housing Markets

Jos van Ommeren

20080098: Rich meets Poor - An International Fairness Experiment

Alexander Cappelen, Karl Ove Moene, Erik Sørensen and Bertil Tungodden

20080097: Managerial Talent, Motivation, and Self-Selection into Public Management

Josse Delfgaauw and Robert Dur

20080096: Bayesian Averaging over Many Dynamic Model Structures with Evidence on the Great Ratios and Liquidity Trap Risk

Rodney Strachan and Herman van Dijk

20080095: The Bias of the Gini Coefficient due to Grouping

Tom Van Ourti and Philip Clarke

20080094: Social Interaction, Co-Worker Altruism, and Incentives

Robert Dur and Joeri Sol

20080093: Health, Financial Incentives and Retirement in Spain

Esen Erdogan-Ciftci, Eddy Van Doorslaer and Angel Lopez-Nicolas

20080092: Bayesian Forecasting of Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall using Adaptive Importance Sampling

Lennart Hoogerheide and Herman van Dijk

20080091: Optimal Diversity in Investments with Recombinant Innovation

Jeroen van den Bergh and Paolo Zeppini

20080090: Defending against Speculative Attacks

Tijmen Daniëls, Henk Jager and Franc Klaassen

20080089: Errors in Judicial Decisions

Joep Sonnemans and Frans van Dijk

20080088: Endogenous Transport Prices and Trade Imbalances

Olaf Jonkeren, Erhan Demirel, Jos van Ommeren and Piet Rietveld

20080087: Welfare Effects of Adverse Weather through Speed Changes in Car Commuting Trips

Muhammad Sabir, Jos van Ommeren, Mark Koetse and Piet Rietveld

20080086: Global Loss Diversification in the Insurance Sector

Oleg Sheremet and Andre Lucas

20080085: Structural Differences in Economic Growth

Nalan Baştürk, Richard Paap and Dick van Dijk

20080084: A Dynamic Analysis of the Demand for Health Insurance and Health Care

Jonneke Bolhaar, Maarten Lindeboom and Bas van der Klaauw

20080083: The Average Tree Solution for Cooperative Games with Communication Structure

P. Jean-Jacques Herings, Gerard van der Laan, Adolphus Talman and Zaifu Yang

20080082: Gift Exchange in the Workplace

Robert Dur

20080081: Acceleration of Technology Adoption withing Firms

Philipp Koellinger and Christian Schade

20080080: Reciprocity and Incentive Pay in the Workplace

Robert Dur, Arjan Non and Hein Roelfsema

20080079: How do Parents allocate Time ?

Hans Bloemen and Elena Stancanelli

20080078: I can't get no Satisfaction - Necessity Entrepreneurship and Procedural Utility

Joern Block and Philipp Koellinger

20080077: The Impact of Workplace Conditions on Firm Performance

Ioan Sebastian Buhai, Elena Cottini and Niels Westergård-Nielsen

20080076: Positive Expectations Feedback Experiments and Number Guessing Games as Models of Financial Markets

Joep Sonnemans and Jan Tuinstra

20080075: Better Safe than Sorry? Ex Ante and Ex Post Moral Hazard in Dynamic Insurance Data

Jaap Abbring, Pierre-André Chiappori and Tibor Zavadil

20080074: The Effect of Noise in a Performance Measure on Work Motivation

Randolph Sloof and Mirjam Praag

20080073: If you are so smart, why aren't you an Entrepreneur?

Joop Hartog, Mirjam Praag and Justin van der Sluis

20080072: The Degradation of Distorted Performance Measures

Randolph Sloof and Mirjam Praag

20080071: Risk and Savings: a Taxonomy

Jan Willem Gunning

20080070: Modeling Migration Dynamics of Immigrants

Govert Bijwaard

20080069: The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model

Drew Creal, Siem Jan Koopman and Eric Zivot

20080068: Oligopolistic Competition in Price and Quality

Andrei Dubovik and Maarten Janssen

20080067: Countries of a Feather flock together

Charles Marrewijk and Gus Garita

20080066: Optimal Sharing of Labor Productivity Risks and Mix of Pay-As-You-Go and Savings

Debora Kusmerski Bilard

20080065: Entrepreneurial Moral Hazard in Income Insurance

Mette Ejrnæs and Stefan Hochguertel

20080064: Monetary Valuation of Aircraft Noise

Jasper Dekkers and Willemijn van der Straaten

20080063: On the Nature, Modeling, and Neural Bases of Social Ties

Frans van Winden, Mirre Stallen and K. Richard Ridderinkhof

20080062: Adaptive Mixture of Student-t distributions as a Flexible Candidate Distribution for Efficient Simulation: the R Package AdMit

David Ardia, Lennart F. Hoogerheide and Herman van Dijk

20080061: The Effect of Parents' Schooling on Child's Schooling: A Nonparametric Bounds Analysis

Monique De Haan

20080060: Computation of the Nucleolus for a Class of Disjunctive Games with a Permission Structure

Rene van den Brink, Ilya Katsev and Gerard van der Laan

20080059: From Overt to Tacit Collusion

Jeroen Hinloopen and Adriaan Soetevent

20080058: Analysis of Spatial Disparities by a Structural Equations Model

Maria Francesca Cracolici, Miranda Cuffaro and Peter Nijkamp

20080057: Employment Assimilation of Immigrants in the Netherlands

Aslan Zorlu and Joop Hartog

20080056: Pricing, Capacity and Long-run Cost Functions for First-best and Second-best Network Problems

Erik Verhoef, Andrew Koh and Simon Shepherd

20080055: Separating Real Incentives and Accountability

Ferdinand Vieider

20080054: Complex Evolutionary Systems in Behavioral Finance

Cars Hommes and Florian Wagener

20080053: The Information Content of a Stated Choice Experiment

Jan Rouwendal, Adriana Blaeij, Piet Rietveld and Erik Verhoef

20080052: The Importance of Financial Incentives on Retirement Choices

Michele Belloni and Rob Alessie

20080051: Do Early Life and Contemporaneous Macro-conditions explain Health at Older Ages?

France Portrait, Rob Alessie and Dorly Deeg

20080050: Partial Likelihood-Based Scoring Rules for Evaluating Density Forecasts in Tails

Cees Diks, Valentyn Panchenko and Dick van Dijk

20080049: The Unique-lowest Sealed-bid Auction

Harold Houba, Dinard van der Laan and Dirk Veldhuizen

20080048: The Own and Social Effects of an Unexpected Income Shock

Peter Kuhn, Peter Kooreman, Adriaan Soetevent and Arie Kapteyn

20080047: Investment, Resolution of Risk, and the Role of Affect

Frans van Winden, Michal Krawczyk and Astrid Hopfensitz

20080046: MDL Mean Function Selection in Semiparametric Kernel Regression Models

Jan G. Gooijer and Ao Yuan

20080045: The Political Economy of Financial Systems

Stephen Haber and Enrico Perotti

20080044: Auctions under Payoff Uncertainty: The Case with Heterogeneous Bidder-Aversion to Downside Risk

Audrey Hu and Liang Zou

20080043: Urban Expansion or Clustered Deconcentration?

Wouter Vermeulen and Jan Rouwendal

20080042: Have Euro Area Government Bond Risk Premia Converged To Their Common State?

Lorenzo Pozzi and Guido Wolswijk

20080041: The Extent of Internet Auction Markets

Laurens de Haan, Casper de Vries and Chen Zhou

20080040: Likelihood Functions for State Space Models with Diffuse Initial Conditions

Marc K. Francke, Siem Jan Koopman and Aart de Vos

20080039: The Role of Information in the Take-up of Student Loans

Adam Booij, Edwin Leuven and Hessel Oosterbeek

20080038: The Impact of Entrepreneurship Education on Entrepreneurship Competencies and Intentions

Hessel Oosterbeek, Mirjam Praag and Auke IJsselstein

20080037: The Impact of Cash Transfers on School Enrollment: Evidence from Ecuador

Hessel Oosterbeek, Juan Ponce and Norbert Schady

20080036: Possibly Ill-behaved Posteriors in Econometric Models

Lennart Hoogerheide and Herman van Dijk

20080035: Seeing the World with Different Eyes

Philipp Koellinger, Maria Minniti and Christian Schade

20080034: Simultaneous Pooled Auctions with Multiple Bids and Preference Lists

Maarten C.W. Janssen, Vladimir Karamychev and Emiel Maasland

20080033: Agglomeration Externalities and Localized Employment Growth

Friso de Vor and Henri de Groot

20080032: Instrumental Variable Estimation for Duration Data

Govert Bijwaard

20080031: Entrepreneurial Exit in Real and Imagined Markets

Erik Stam, Roy Thurik and Peter van der Zwan

20080030: Congestion Pricing, Slot Sales and Slot Trading in Aviation

Erik Verhoef

20080029: Forecasting Cross-Sections of Frailty-Correlated Default

Siem Jan Koopman, Andre Lucas and Bernd Schwaab

20080028: Seasonality with Trend and Cycle Interactions in Unobserved Components Models

Siem Jan Koopman and Kai Ming Lee

20080027: The Health Returns to Education - What can we learn from Twins?

Petter Lundborg

20080026: The Reverse Talmud Rule for Bankruptcy Problems

Rene van den Brink, Yukihiko Funaki and Gerard van der Laan

20080025: Private Wealth and Job Exit at Older Age: a Random Effects Model

Hans Bloemen

20080024: Optimal Government Spending and Unemployment

Ludger Linnemann and Andreas Schabert

20080023: Federal Reserve Policy viewed through a Money Supply Loss

Ibrahim Chowdhury and Andreas Schabert

20080022: Pharmaceutical Research Strategies

Sandra Phlippen and An Vermeersch

20080021: Parameter Driven Multi-state Duration Models: Simulated vs. Approximate Maximum Likelihood Estimation

André A. Monteiro

20080020: Platform Intermediation in a Market for Differentiated Products

Andrea Galeotti and Jose Moraga-Gonzalez

20080019: Employee Types and Endogenous Organizational Design

Antoni Cunyat and Randolph Sloof

20080018: A Public Good Version of the Collective Household Model: An Empirical Approach with an Application to British Household Data

Chris Klaveren, Bernard van Praag and Henriette Maassen van den Brink

20080017: An Ascending Multi-Item Auction with Financially Constrained Bidders

Gerard van der Laan and Zaifu Yang

20080016: Trade between China and the Netherlands: a Case Study of Globalization

Frank Den Butter and Raphie Hayat

20080015: Heterogeneous Agents, Human Capital Formation and International Income Inequality

Haris Munandar

20080014: Religion and Income

L. Bettendorf and Elbert Dijkgraaf

20080013: Cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions: On Revealed Comparative Advantage And Merger Waves

Steven Brakman, Harry Garretsen and Charles Marrewijk

20080012: Sustainable Nations: What do Aggregate Indicators tell us?

J. Ram Pillarisetti and Jeroen van den Bergh

20080011: Model-based Estimation of High Frequency Jump Diffusions with Microstructure Noise and Stochastic Volatility

Charles Bos

20080010: Returns to Tenure or Seniority?

Ioan Sebastian Buhai, Miguel Portela, Coen N. Teulings and Aico van Vuuren

20080009: Health and Income across the Life Cycle and Generations in Europe

Hans van Kippersluis, Tom Van Ourti, Owen O'Donnell and Eddy Van Doorslaer

20080008: An Hourly Periodic State Space Model for Modelling French National Electricity Load

V. Dordonnat, Siem Jan Koopman, Marius Ooms, A. Dessertaine and J. Collet

20080007: Likelihood-based Analysis for Dynamic Factor Models

Borus Jungbacker and Siem Jan Koopman

20080006: A Value for Directed Communication Situations

Enrique González-Arangüena, Conrado Manuel, Daniel Gomez and Rene van den Brink

20080005: Unequal Chances on a Flexible Labor Market, The Case of the Netherlands

Govert Bijwaard and Justus Veenman

20080004: Does Land Use Planning shape Regional Economies?

Wouter Vermeulen and Jos van Ommeren

20080003: A Real Options Perspective on R&D Portfolio Diversification

Sjoerd van Bekkum, Enrico Pennings and Han Smit