Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers

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20110020: Stock Index Returns' Density Prediction using GARCH Models: Frequentist or Bayesian Estimation?

Lennart F. Hoogerheide, David Ardia and Nienke Corre

20110019: The Financial Trilemma

Dirk Schoenmaker

20110018: Measuring Financial Market Integration over the Long Run: Is there a U-Shape?

Vadym Volosovych

20110017: Inverse Adverse Selection: The Market for Gems

Giuseppe Dari-Mattiacci, Sander Onderstal and Francesco Parisi

20110016: Targeted Advertising and Social Status

Nick Vikander

20110015: Capacity Constraints and Beliefs about Demand

Nick Vikander

20110014: Nonrenewable Resources, Strategic Behavior and the Hotelling Rule: An Experiment

Roel van Veldhuizen and Joep Sonnemans

20110013: Export Growth and Factor Market Competition: Theory and Some Evidence

Julian Emami Namini, Giovanni Facchini and Ricardo López Rago

20110012: Variable Selection and Functional Form Uncertainty in Cross-Country Growth Regressions

Tim Salimans

20110011: Kernel-Smoothed Conditional Quantiles of Correlated Bivariate Discrete Data

Jan G. Gooijer and Ao Yuan

20110010: Sorting and the Output Loss due to Search Frictions

Pieter Gautier and Coen N. Teulings

20110009: Regional Clusters of Innovative Activity in Europe: Are Social Capital and Geographical Proximity the Key Determinants?

Laura de Dominicis, Raymond Florax and Henri de Groot

20110008: Job Search Requirements for Older Unemployed: Transitions to Employment, Early Retirement and Disability Benefits

Hans Bloemen, Stefan Hochguertel and Marloes Lammers

20110007: Nonlinear Forecasting with Many Predictors using Kernel Ridge Regression

Peter Exterkate, Patrick Groenen, Christiaan Heij and Dick van Dijk

20110006: Divergent Priors and well Behaved Bayes Factors

Rodney Strachan and Herman van Dijk

20110005: The Willingness to pay for Quality Aspects of Durables: Theory and Application to the Car Market

Ismir Mulalic and Jan Rouwendal

20110004: A Class of Adaptive EM-based Importance Sampling Algorithms for Efficient and Robust Posterior and Predictive Simulation

Lennart Hoogerheide, Anne Opschoor and Herman van Dijk

20110003: Combining Predictive Densities using Bayesian Filtering with Applications to US Economics Data

Monica Billio, Roberto Casarin, Francesco Ravazzolo and Herman van Dijk

20110002: Modeling and Estimation of Synchronization in Multistate Markov-Switching Models

Cem Cakmakli, Richard Paap and Dick van Dijk

20110001: When is Quantitative Easing effective?

Markus Hoermann and Andreas Schabert

20100129: Did the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 make Firms less Opaque? Evidence from Analyst Earnings Forecasts

Stefan Arping and Zacharias Sautner

20100128: Differentiating Indexation in Dutch Pension Funds

Roel Beetsma and Alessandro Bucciol

20100127: Same Work, Lower Grade? Student Ethnicity and Teachers’ Subjective Assessments

Reyn Van Ewijk

20100126: Price Competition on Graphs

Adriaan Soetevent

20100125: Two-way Flow Networks with Small Decay

Kris De Jaegher and Jurjen Kamphorst

20100124: Dynamic Incentive Effects of Relative Performance Pay: A Field Experiment

Josse Delfgaauw, Robert Dur, Arjan Non and Willem Verbeke

20100123: When Galatea cares about her Reputation: How having Faith in your Workers reduces their Motivation to shine

Jurjen Kamphorst and Otto Swank

20100122: Education-related Inequity in Health Care with Heterogeneous Reporting of Health

Teresa Bago d'Uva, Maarten Lindeboom, Owen O'Donnell and Eddy Van Doorslaer

20100121: Contracting out, an Empirical Study on Motives

Mattheus Wassenaar, Tom Groot and Raymond Gradus

20100120: Collusion and the Choice of Auction: An Experimental Study

Jeroen Hinloopen and Sander Onderstal

20100119: Handedness predicts Social Preferences: Evidence connecting the Lab to the Field

Thomas Buser

20100118: Step by Step: Revisiting Step Tolling in the Bottleneck Model

Charles Lindsey, Vincent van den Berg and Erik Verhoef

20100117: Risk Aversion under Preference Uncertainty

Roman Kraeussl, Andre Lucas and Arjen Siegmann

20100116: Cash Flow and Discount Rate Risk in Up and Down Markets: What is actually priced?

Mahmoud Botshekan, Roman Kraeussl and Andre Lucas

20100115: Getting the Most out of Macroeconomic Information for Predicting Stock Returns and Volatility

Cem Cakmakli and Dick van Dijk

20100114: Homeownership and Demand for Long-Term Care

Jan Rouwendal and Fleur Thomese

20100113: Gender Peer Effects in University: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment

Hessel Oosterbeek and Reyn Van Ewijk

20100112: Collusion through Joint R&D: An Empirical Assessment

Tomaso Duso, Lars-Hendrik Roeller and Jo Seldeslachts

20100111: Optimal Management with Potential Regime Shifts

Stephen Polasky, Aart de Zeeuw and Florian Wagener

20100110: The Economics of Information in Transport

Piet Rietveld

20100109: Pensions, Debt and Inflation Risk in a Monetary Union

Yvonne Adema

20100108: Competing Risks in a Time on the Market Analysis

Erik de Wit

20100107: Competing Recombinant Technologies for Environmental Innovation

Paolo Zeppini and Jeroen van den Bergh

20100106: Short-Selling Bans around the World: Evidence from the 2007-09 Crisis

Alessandro Beber and Marco Pagano

20100105: The Impact of Mixed Land Use on Residential Property Values

Hans Koster and Jan Rouwendal

20100104: Systemic Risk Diagnostics

Bernd Schwaab, Andre Lucas and Siem Jan Koopman

20100103: Can Provision of Free School Uniforms harm Attendance? Evidence from Ecuador

Diana Hidalgo, Mercedes Onofa, Hessel Oosterbeek and Juan Ponce

20100102: Retirement Choices in Italy: What an Option Value Model tells us

Michele Belloni and Rob Alessie

20100101: Monitoring your Friends, not your Foes: Strategic Ignorance and the Delegation of Real Authority

Silvia Dominguez-Martinez, Randolph Sloof and Ferdinand von Siemens

20100100: Sovereign Risk and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in an Emerging Market Economy

Markus Kirchner and Malte Rieth

20100099: What are the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks? Evidence from Dollarized Countries

Tim Willems

20100098: Labor Market Matching under Imperfect Information

Tim Willems

20100097: Bottleneck Congestion: Differentiating the Coarse Charge

Jasper Knockaert, Erik Verhoef and Jan Rouwendal

20100096: Fair Agreements for Sharing International Rivers with Multiple Springs and Externalities

Rene van den Brink, Gerard van der Laan and Nigel Moes

20100095: Happiness and Financial Satisfaction in Israel. Effects of Religiosity, Ethnicity, and War

Bernard van Praag, Dmitri Romanov and Ada Ferrer-i-Carbonell

20100094: The Gains of Trains: The effect of station openings on house prices

Hans Koster, Jos van Ommeren and Piet Rietveld

20100093: Wages and Commuting: Quasi-Natural Experiments' Evidence from Firms that relocate

Ismir Mulalic, Jos van Ommeren and Ninette Pilegaard

20100092: Approximate Results for a Generalized Secretary Problem

Chris Dietz, Dinard van der Laan and Ad Ridder

20100091: Welfare Effects of Road Pricing and Traffic Information under Alternative Ownership Regimes

Sergejs Gubins, Erik Verhoef and Thomas Graaff

20100090: The Herodotus Paradox

Michael Baye, Dan Kovenock and Casper de Vries

20100089: Hospitals, Employees and Parking

Jos van Ommeren and Giovanni Russo

20100088: Does Disagreement amongst Forecasters have Predictive Value?

Rianne Legerstee and Philip Hans Franses

20100087: Estimating Firms' Demand for Agglomeration

Hans Koster, Jos van Ommeren and Piet Rietveld

20100086: The University Workers' Willingness to pay for Commuting

Giovanni Russo, Jos van Ommeren and Piet Rietveld

20100085: Public Housing and the Value of Apartment Quality to Households

Jos van Ommeren and Marnix Koopman

20100084: Stochastic Dominance Efficiency Analysis of Diversified Portfolios: Classification, Comparison and Refinements

Andrey Lizyayev

20100083: Identifying All Distinct Sample P-P Plots, with an Application to the Exact Finite Sample Distribution of the L1-FCvM Test Statistic

Jeroen Hinloopen and Rien Wagenvoort

20100082: The Downside Risk of Heavy Tails induces Low Diversification

Namwon Hyung and Casper de Vries

20100081: Global Stochastic Properties of Dynamic Models and their Linear Approximations

Ana Babus and Casper de Vries

20100080: Unraveling the Shift to the Entrepreneurial Economy

David Audretsch and Roy Thurik

20100079: A Theory of Socioeconomic Disparities in Health over the Life Cycle

Titus Galama and Hans van Kippersluis

20100078: A Meta-Analysis of the Equity Premium

Casper Ewijk, Henri de Groot and Coos Santing

20100077: Consistent Estimation of Structural Parameters in Regression Models with Adaptive Learning

Norbert Christopeit and Michael Massmann

20100076: Measuring Socioeconomic Inequality in Health, Health Care and Health Financing by Means of Rank-Dependent Indices: A Recipe for Good Practice

Guido Erreygers and Tom Van Ourti

20100075: Family Background Variables as Instruments for Education in Income Regressions: A Bayesian Analysis

Lennart Hoogerheide, Joern Block and Roy Thurik

20100074: Self-Selection and the Power of Incentive Schemes: An Experimental Study

Jana Vyrastekova, Sander Onderstal and Pierre Koning

20100073: Start Time and Worker Compensation: Implications for Staggered-Hours Programs

Eva Gutiérrez-i-Puigarnau and Jos van Ommeren

20100072: Insurance Search and Switching Behavior

Jonneke Bolhaar, Bas van der Klaauw and Maarten Lindeboom

20100071: Predicting Travel Time Variability for Cost-Benefit Analysis

Stefanie Peer, Carl Koopmans and Erik Verhoef

20100070: Is Power Production Flexibility a Substitute for Storability? Evidence from Electricity Futures Prices

Mehtap Kilic and Ronald Huisman

20100069: A Rank Dependent Scheduling Model

Paul Koster and Erik Verhoef

20100068: Stick to the Plan? A Revealed-Preference Study of Behavioural Impacts of Traffic Information

Yin-Yen Tseng, Jasper Knockaert and Erik Verhoef

20100067: Self-Employment around Retirement Age

Stefan Hochguertel

20100066: On the Identification of the Costs of Simultaneous Search

Jose Moraga-Gonzalez, Zsolt Sandor and Matthijs Wildenbeest

20100065: Axiomatization and Implementation of Discounted Shapley Values

Rene van den Brink and Yukihiko Funaki

20100064: Carrot and Stick: How Reemployment Bonuses and Benefit Sanctions affect Job Finding Rates

Bas van der Klaauw and Jan van Ours

20100063: The Trust Game behind the Veil of Ignorance: A Note on Gender Differences

Jana Vyrastekova and Sander Onderstal

20100062: Give or take? Rewards vs. Charges for a Congested Bottleneck

Jan Rouwendal, Erik Verhoef and Jasper Knockaert

20100061: Travel Time Variability and Airport Accessibility

Paul Koster, Eric Kroes and Erik Verhoef

20100060: Micro-Evidence on the Determinants of Innovation in The Netherlands: The Relative Importance of Absorptive Capacity and Agglomeration Externalities

Martijn Smit, Maria A. Abreu and Henri de Groot

20100059: A Comparative Study of Monte Carlo Methods for Efficient Evaluation of Marginal Likelihood

David Ardia, Nalan Baştürk, Lennart Hoogerheide and Herman van Dijk

20100058: Do Firms sell forward for Strategic Reasons? An Application to the Wholesale Market for Natural Gas

Remco van Eijkel and Jose Luis Moraga

20100057: Optimal Central Bank Lending

Andreas Schabert

20100056: Punching above One's Weight: The Case against Election Campaigns

Marco Haan, Bart Los, Sander Onderstal and Yohanes Riyanto

20100055: Peer Evaluation: Incentives and Co-Worker Relations

Joeri Sol

20100054: Market Power in Water Markets

Erik Ansink and Harold Houba

20100053: Risk Attitudes and Profits among Small Enterprises in Nigeria

Judith Lammers, Daan Willebrands and Joop Hartog

20100052: The Macroeconomics of the Credit Crisis: In Search of Externalities for Macro-Prudential Supervision

Frank Den Butter

20100051: Transaction Management: Value Creation by Reducing Transaction Costs

Frank Den Butter

20100050: Evidence on a Real Business Cycle Model with Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks using Bayesian Model Averaging

Rodney Strachan and Herman van Dijk