Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers

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20240065: Minority Salience and Criminal Justice Decisions

Kyra Hanemaaijer, Nadine Ketel and Olivier Marie

20240064: Greening the Economy

Steven Poelhekke

20240063: The causal component in the intergenerational transmission of income

Monique De Haan and Magnus Stubhaug

20240062: Robust Multivariate Observation-Driven Filtering for a Common Stochastic Trend: Theory and Application

Francisco Blasques, Janneke van Brummelen, Paolo Gorgi and Siem Jan Koopman

20240061: Enhancing Regional Resilience for Energy Price Shocks: Efficient Gas Use and Upstream Decarbonization

Sacha den Nijs and Mark Thissen

20240060: PyTimeVar: A Python Package for Trending Time-Varying Time Series Models

Mingxuan Song, Bernhard van der Sluis and Yicong Lin

20240059: Realized Variances vs. Correlations: Unlocking the Gains in Multivariate Volatility Forecasting

Laura Capera Romero and Anne Opschoor

20240058: Poverty and Uncertainty Attitudes

Víctor González-Jiménez

20240057: High temperatures and workplace injuries

Matteo Picchio and Jan van Ours

20240056: Flexible Negative Binomial Mixtures for Credible Mode Inference in Heterogeneous Count Data from Finance, Economics and Bioinformatics

Jamie Cross, Lennart Hoogerheide, Paul Labonne and Herman van Dijk

20240055: Non-Compete Agreements, Tacit Knowledge and Market Imperfections

Eric Bartelsman, Sabien Dobbelaere and Alessandro Zona Mattioli

20240054: Competitive search with private information: Can price signal quality?

James Albrecht, Xiaoming Cai, Pieter Gautier and Susan Vroman

20240053: The Chinese waste import ban and the emergence of waste havens within Europe

Konstantin Sommer

20240052: Testing for Clustering Under Switching

Igor Custodio João

20240051: Expected Kullback-Leibler-based characterizations of score-driven updates

Ramon Punder, Timo Dimitriadis and Rutger-Jan Lange

20240050: On Bubbles in Cryptocurrency Prices

Maarten van Oordt

20240049: Density Forecasting for Electricity Prices under Tail Heterogeneity with the t-Riesz Distribution

Anne Opschoor, Dewi Peerlings, Luca Rossini and Andre Lucas

20240048: Bargaining Power and Quantity Discounts to Retailers: Evidence from India’s Pharmaceutical Industry

Gianluca Antonecchia, Ajay Bhaskarabhatla and Enrico Pennings

20240047: The persistence and nature of the labor reallocation shock during the COVID-19 crisis

Mathieu Steijn

20240046: Price elasticities of meat, fish and plant-based meat substitutes: evidence from store-level Dutch supermarket scanner data

Zhaoxin Liu and Erik Ansink

20240045: Responsibility-Sensitive Welfare Weights for Health

Matthew Robson, Owen O’Donnell and Tom Van Ourti

20240044: Incentives matter sometimes: On the differences between league and Cup football matches

Jan van Ours and Martin van Tuijl

20240043: The effects of mental health interventions on labor market outcomes in low- and middle- income countries

Crick Lund, Kate Orkin, Marc Witte, John Walker, Thandi Davies, Johannes Haushofer, Sarah Murray, Judy Bass, Laura Murray, Wietse Tol and Vikram Patel

20240042: Wages and employment in the Netherlands, 2017-2023

Iris Klinker and Bas ter Weel

20240041: Holi Crimes

Claudia Martínez V. and Rubén Poblete-Cazenave

20240040: From Two Heads to One: The Short-Run Effects of the Recentralization of Political Power in Rural China

Olivier Marie, Thomas Post, Zihan Ye and Xiaopeng Zou

20240039: Striking Out: Biases and Losses of Retail Option Traders

Aleksi Pitkäjärvi and Matteo Vacca

20240038: Repeated games with partner choice

Christopher Graser, Takako Fujiwara-Greve, Julian García and Matthijs van Veelen

20240037: Statistical Early Warning Models with Applications

Lucas P. Harlaar, Jacques J.F. Commandeur, Jan A. van den Brakel, Siem Jan Koopman, Niels Bos and Frits D. Bijleveld

20240036: A Novel Test for the Presence of Local Explosive Dynamics

F. Blasques, Siem Jan Koopman, G. Mingoli and Sean Telg

20240035: Towards fully decentralized environmental regulation

Jens Gudmundsson, Jens Leth Hougaard and Erik Ansink

20240034: The Generalized Price Equation

Matthijs van Veelen

20240033: The generalized version of Hamilton’s rule

Matthijs van Veelen

20240032: Human-driven vehicles’ cruising versus autonomous vehicles’ back-and-forth congestion: The effects on traveling, parking and congestion

Xiaojuan Yu and Vincent van den Berg

20240031: Non-Transitive Patterns in Long-Term Football Rivalries

Jan van Ours

20240030: Taylor Rules with Endogenous Regimes

Knut Are Aastveit, Jamie Cross, Francesco Furlanetto and Herman van Dijk

20240029: Seeking or ignoring ethical certifications in consumer choice

Dianna R. Amasino, Suzanne Oosterwijk, Nicolette J. Sullivan and Joël van der Weele

20240028: Skipping your workout, again? Measuring and understanding time inconsistency in physical activity

Diarmaid Ó Ceallaigh, Kirsten I.M. Rohde and Hans van Kippersluis

20240027: Estimating the Lifecycle Fertility Consequences of WWII Using Bunching

Esmee Zwiers

20240026: Home Improvement, Wealth Inequality, and the Energy-Efficiency Paradox

Martijn I. Dröes and Yasmine Van Der Straten

20240025: Preference heterogeneity in a dynamic flow congestion model

Xiaojuan Yu, Vincent van den Berg and Erik Verhoef

20240024: Learning the value of Eco-Labels: The role of information in sustainable decisions

Alejandro Hirmas and Jan Engelmann

20240023: Consumer perceptions matter: A case study of an anomaly in English football

J Reade and Jan van Ours

20240022: Repeated prisoner’s dilemmas with errors: how much subgame-perfection, how much forgiveness, and how much cooperation?

Christopher Graser and Matthijs van Veelen

20240021: On weighted-egalitarian values for cooperative games

Zhengxing Zou, René van den Brink and Yukihiko Funaki

20240020: Industrial Transfer Policy in China: Migration and Development

Michiel Gerritse, Zhiling Wang and Frank Oort

20240019: Exclusive Portfolio Dealing and Market Inefficiency

Natalie Kessler, Iman Lelyveld and Ellen van der Woerd

20240018: Safe Asset Scarcity and Re-use in the European Repo Market

Justus Inhoffen and Iman Lelyveld

20240017: Born That Way: Beliefs about Genetics’ Importance and Redistribution Preferences

Andrea Pogliano

20240016: A Score-Driven Filter for Causal Regression Models with Time- Varying Parameters and Endogenous Regressors

Francisco Blasques and Noah Stegehuis

20240015: Spatial Search

Xiaoming Cai, Pieter Gautier and Ronald Wolthoff

20240014: They didn’t know what they got till the crowd was gone

Jan van Ours

20240013: PolWe study the evolution of voter support for climate policies aimed at containing the effect of climate risk, as weather conditions worsens at a time of rising economic inequality. Households differ in age, beliefs and income, and the scale of intervention to preserve habitable land reflects the preference of the majority coalition. Economic polarization tightens conditions for more households, while rising climate risk increases support for public adaptation. If beliefs on attainable impact are not too dispersed, an initially coalition of young and old pessimists might tip towards a coalition of old optimists and young pessimists, leading to a jump in support for public action.A steady rise in inequality may ultimately induce a second political tipping point, towards a coalition of the low-income old and young pessimists, although the effects on public adaptation are weaker. Public intervention is undermined by pessimism about the efficacy of public adaptation and the "tragedy of the horizon" effect, as voters only partially internalize benefits for future generations. This prevents public adaptation from converging to the long-term social optimum even when political support is highest

Yasmine van der Straten, Enrico Perotti and Frederick (Rick) van der Ploeg

20240012: Heritability and public policy reconsidered, again

Cornelius A. Rietveld

20240011: Pricing in the Stochastic Bottleneck Model with Price-Sensitive Demand

Qiumin Liu, Vincent van den Berg, Erik Verhoef and Rui Jiang

20240010: No Novelty Effect but a Honeymoon that Lasts On the Attendance Effects of New Football Stadiums

Jan van Ours

20240009: The Impact of the Menstrual Cycle on Bargaining Behavior

Lina Lozano, Arno Riedl and Christina Rott

20240008: Bootstrapping GARCH Models Under Dependent Innovations

Eric Beutner, Julia Schaumburg and Barend Spanjers

20240007: Intra-Household Insurance and the Intergenerational Transmission of Income Risk

Francesco Agostinelli, Domenico Ferraro, Xincheng Qiu and Giuseppe Sorrenti

20240006: Intergenerational Persistence in the Effects of Compulsory Schooling in the US

Titus Galama, Andrei Munteanu and Kevin Thom

20240005: Careers in Multinational Enterprises Evidence on the role of option values, public involvement and stalled sites

Marcus Roesch, Michiel Gerritse and Bas Karreman

20240004: A duration analysis of housing construction times Evidence on the role of option values, public involvement and stalled sites

Lars Brugman and Jan Rouwendal

20240003: A robust Beveridge-Nelson decomposition using a score-driven approach with an application

Francisco Blasques, Janneke van Brummelen, Paolo Gorgi and Siem Jan Koopman

20240002: Social desirability bias in attitudes towards sexism and DEI policies in the workplace

Anne Boring and Josse Delfgaauw

20240001: Adversarial economic preferences predict right-wing voting

Thomas Buser

20230084: Localizing Strictly Proper Scoring Rules

Ramon Punder, Cees G. H. Diks, Roger Laeven and Dick van Dijk

20230083: Floods and financial stability: Scenario-based evidence from below sea level

Francesco G. Caloia, Kees van Ginkel and David-Jan Jansen

20230082: Energy-efficient homes: effects on poverty, environment and comfort

Vincent P. Roberdel, Ioulia Ossokina, Vladimir Karamychev and Theo A. Arentze

20230081: Aftermarket Welfare and Procurement Auctions

Vladimir Karamychev

20230080: R&D Decisions and Productivity Growth: Evidence from Switzerland and the Netherlands

Sabien Dobbelaere, Michael D. König, Andrin Spescha and Martin Wörter

20230066: The impact of family background on educational attainment in Dutch birth cohorts 1966-1995

Tilbe Atav, Cornelius A. Rietveld and Hans van Kippersluis

20230065: Observation-Driven filters for Time- Series with Stochastic Trends and Mixed Causal Non-Causal Dynamics

Francisco Blasques, Siem Jan Koopman and Gabriele Mingoli

20230064: Cyclical consumption

Tino Berger and Lorenzo Pozzi

20230063: Dynamic determinants of optimal global climate policy

Michael Grubb, Rutger-Jan Lange, Nicolas Cerkez, Claudia Wieners, Ida Sognnaes and Pablo Salas

20230062: Spoiling the party. Experimental evidence on the willingness to transmit inconvenient ethical information

Jantsje M. Mol, Ivan Soraperra and Joël J. van der Weele

20230061: Degree Centrality, von Neumann-Morgenstern Expected Utility and Externalities in Networks

Rene’ van den Brink and Agnieszka Rusinowska

20230060: The Political Economy of Commitment to Policies

Josse Delfgaauw and Otto H. Swank

20230059: The effect of urban trees on house prices: evidence from cut-down trees in Amsterdam

Jan Rouwendal and Lynn Bouwknegt

20230056: Spillovers in Fields of Study: Siblings, Cousins, and Neighbors

Stanislav Avdeev, Nadine Ketel, Hessel Oosterbeek and Bas van der Klaauw

20230055: Fuzzy firm name matching: Merging Amadeus firm data to PATSTAT

Leon Bremer

20230054: Pseudo-variance quasi-maximum likelihood estimation of semi-parametric time series models

Mirko Armillotta and Paolo Gorgi

20230053: Tax-Induced Emigration: Who Flees High Taxes? Evidence from the Netherlands

José Victor C. Giarola, Olivier Marie, Frank Cörvers and Hans Schmeets

20230052: The impact of high temperatures on performance in work-related activities

Matteo Picchio and Jan van Ours

20230051: Consistency, distributional convergence, and optimality of score-driven filters

Eric A. Beutner, Yicong Lin and Andre Lucas

20230050: When venture capital (VC) investment flows into a local economy, does it yield economic activity beyond the receiving ventures? While a large literature studies the effect of VC investments on venture-level activity, its consequences for broader economic activity are less well understood. We study the effect of VC investment flows on destination county employment, wages, and venture creation, using a novel instrument based on the ‘social connectedness’ of counties to major non-local sources of VC investment. Using detailed data on investor-to-venture VC flows, we find substantial positive effects: using instrumental-variable estimates, each million dollars invested into a county yields approximately one new venture, 41 jobs, and seven million dollars in payroll. We also document positive spillovers across industries, particularly toward those supplying VC-backed ventures—thereby contributing to the resource munificence of the local economy and its entrepreneurial ecosystem

Steven Poelhekke and Benjamin Wache

20230049: Robust bootstrap inference for linear time-varying coefficient models: Some Monte Carlo evidence

Yicong Lin and Mingxuan Song

20230048: Persuading an audience: Testing information design in the laboratory

Andreas G. B. Ziegler

20230047: Start-up Acquisitions and the Entrant’s and Incumbent’s Innovation Portfolios

Esmée Dijk, Jose Moraga-Gonzalez and Evgenia Motchenkova

20230046: A Wind Tunnel Test of Wind Farm Auctions

Xinyu Li, Marco Haan, Sander Onderstal and Jasper Veldman

20230045: Corporate leniency programs for antitrust: Past, present, and future

Jeroen Hinloopen, Sander Onderstal and Adriaan Soetevent

20230044: Gender and the time cost of peer review

Diane Alexander, Olga Gorelkina, Erin Hengel and Richard Tol

20230043: The energy efficiency gap and barriers to investments

Leon Bremer, Sacha J. den Nijs and Henri de Groot

20230042: The pricing of climate transition risk in Europe’s equity market

Philippe Loyson, Rianne Luijendijk and Sweder van Wijnbergen

20230041: BayesMultiMode: Bayesian Mode Inference in R

Nalan Basturk, Jamie Cross, Peter de Knijff, Lennart Hoogerheide, Paul Labonne and Herman van Dijk

20230040: Large Orders in Small Markets: Execution with Endogenous Liquidity Supply

Agostino Capponi, Albert Menkveld and Hongzhong Zhang

20230039: Time-varying effects of housing attributes and economic environment on housing prices

Marina Friedrich, Yicong Lin, Pavitram Ramdaras, Sean Telg and Bernhard van der Sluis

20230038: Bayesian Mode Inference for Discrete Distributions in Economics and Finance

Jamie Cross, Lennart Hoogerheide, Paul Labonne and Herman van Dijk

20230037: Information-Theoretic Time-Varying Density Modeling

Bram van Os

20230036: How to Pollute a River If You Must

Yuzhi Yang, Erik Ansink and Jens Gudmundsson

20230035: Competition modulates buyers’ reaction to sellers’ cheap talk

Rafiq Friperson, Hessel Oosterbeek and Bas van der Klaauw