A Unifying Theory of Aging and Mortality

Valentin Flietner, Bernd Heidergott, Frank den Hollander, Ines Lindner, Azadeh Parvaneh and Holger Strulik
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Valentin Flietner: PwC and Tinbergen Institute
Bernd Heidergott: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute
Frank den Hollander: Leiden University
Ines Lindner: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute
Azadeh Parvaneh: Leiden University

No 24-079/II, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers from Tinbergen Institute

Abstract: In this paper, we advance the network theory of aging and mortality by developing a causal mathematical model for the mortality rate. First, we show that in large networks, where health deficits accumulate at nodes representing health indicators, the modeling of network evolution with Poisson processes is universal and can be derived from fundamental principles. Second, with the help of two simplifying approximations, which we refer to as mean-field assumption and homogeneity assumption, we provide an analytical derivation of Gompertz law under generic and biologically relevant conditions. We identify the parameters in Gompertz law as a function of the parameters driving the evolution of the network, and illustrate our computations with simulations and analytic approximations.

JEL-codes: I10 J10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-12-20
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-dem, nep-hea and nep-net
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