Domain Informed Negative Sampling Strategies for Dynamic Graph Embedding in Meme Stock Related Social Networks

Yunming Hui, Inez Maria Zwetsloot, Simon Trimborn and Stevan Rudinac
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Yunming Hui: University of Amsterdam
Inez Maria Zwetsloot: University of Amsterdam
Simon Trimborn: University of Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute
Stevan Rudinac: University of Amsterdam

No 25-003/X, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers from Tinbergen Institute

Abstract: Social network platforms like Reddit are increasingly impacting real-world economics. Meme stocks are a recent phenomena where price movements are driven by retail investors organising themselves via social networks. To study the impact of social networks on meme stocks, the first step is to analyse these networks. Going forward, predicting meme stocks' returns would require to predict dynamic interactions first. This is different from conventional link prediction, frequently applied in e.g. recommendation systems. For this task, it is essential to predict more complex interaction dynamics, such as the exact timing and interaction types like loops. These are crucial for linking the network to meme stock price movements. Dynamic graph embedding (DGE) has recently emerged as a promising approach for modeling dynamic graph-structured data. However, current negative sampling strategies, an important component of DGE, are designed for conventional dynamic link prediction and do not capture the specific patterns present in meme stock-related social networks. This limits the training and evaluation of DGE models in analysing such social networks. To overcome this drawback, we propose novel negative sampling strategies based on the analysis of real meme stock-related social networks and financial knowledge. Our experiments show that the proposed negative sampling strategy can better evaluate and train DGE models targeted at meme stock-related social networks compared to existing baselines.

Date: 2025-01-24
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