Do shocks divide or unite: Evidence from the Netherlands

Yannick van Etten, Jan Magnus and Tetsuya Matsubayashi
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Yannick van Etten: Tinbergen Institute
Jan Magnus: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Tetsuya Matsubayashi: The University of Osaka

No 25-056/III, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers from Tinbergen Institute

Abstract: We study the possible increase of partisan polarization in the Netherlands over the period 1998--2023, in particular its relationship with the degree of urbanization, the so-called urban-rural divide. Using national election results at the municipal level and municipal characteristics, we show that urban-rural polarization has indeed increased. A novel aspect of our paper is the introduction of shocks as possible explanatory variables. The effect of a shock on polarization depends on the type of shock. An exterior shock tends to increase cohesion and lower polarization, but an interior shock leads to less cohesion and more polarization.

Keywords: urban-rural divide; elections; shocks; geographic polarization; regional resentment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 D72 D74 D83 Z13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-09-26
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