Circular Triads of overperformance in top European football leagues

Jan van Ours
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Jan van Ours: Erasmus University Rotterdam

No 26-009/V, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers from Tinbergen Institute

Abstract: This study examines eight seasons of professional football matches in the English Premier League, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A, and Spanish La Liga. The focus is on the existence of non-transitive triads in match outcomes in terms of points, the quality of performance as indicated by expected points, and the difference between the two, which reflects overperformance or underperformance. The main finding is that there are quite a few non-transitive triads in match outcomes. Surprisingly, these are related to non-transitive patterns in overperformance, but not to non-transitive patterns in quality of performance. Persistent overperformance over a long period of time is generally unlikely to occur; however, it does appear in these non-transitive triads. Circular triads of overperformance may be related to psychological effects, such as placebo or nocebo effects, whereby recent histories of encouraging or disappointing match outcomes have long-lasting consequences.

Keywords: Circular triads; Football (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 D01 Z20 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-03-05
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