Value-at-Risk and Extreme Returns
Jon Danielsson and
Casper de Vries
No 98-017/2, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers from Tinbergen Institute
Abstract:
Accurate prediction of the frequency of extreme events is of primary importance in many financialapplications such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) analysis. We propose a semi-parametric method for VaRevaluation. The largest risks are modelled parametrically, while smaller risks are captured by the non-parametric empirical distribution function. The semi-parametric method is compared with historicalsimulation and the J.P. Morgan RiskMetrics technique on a portfolio of stock returns. For predictions oflow probability worst outcomes, RiskMetrics analysis underpredicts the VaR while historical simulationoverpredicts the VaR. However, the estimates obtained from applying the semi-parametric method aremore accurate in the VaR prediction. In addition, an option is used in the portfolio to lower downsiderisk. Finally, it is argued that current regulatory environment provides incentives to use the lowestquality VaR method available.
Keywords: Value-at-Risk; Extreme Value Theory; RiskMetrics; Historical Simulation; Tail Density Estimation; Financial Regulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1998-02-16
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18)
Downloads: (external link)
https://papers.tinbergen.nl/98017.pdf (application/pdf)
Related works:
Journal Article: Value-at-Risk and Extreme Returns (2000) 
Working Paper: Value-at-risk and extreme returns (1997) 
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tin:wpaper:19980017
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers from Tinbergen Institute Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Tinbergen Office +31 (0)10-4088900 ().