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Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates

Sanjeev Sridharan (), Sunčica Vujić () and Siem Jan Koopman ()
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Sanjeev Sridharan: Westat, Rockville, USA

No 03-040/4, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers from Tinbergen Institute

Abstract: The Commonwealth of Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing for all felony of-fenders committed on or after January 1, 1995. We examine the impact of this legislationon reported crime rates using different time series approaches. In particular, structuraltime series models are considered as an alternative to the Box-Jenkins ARIMA modelsthat form the standard time series approach to intervention analysis. Limited supportfor the deterrent impact of parole abolition and sentence reform is obtained using uni-variate modelling devices, even after including unemployment as an explanatory variabIe.Finally, the flexibility of structural time series models is illustrated by presenting a mul-tivariate analysis that provides some additional evidence of the deterrent impact of thenew legislation.

Keywords: ARIMA models; Intervention; Parole abolition; Regression models; Sentence reform; Structural time series models. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 I38 K42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003-06-05
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