Risk-averse and Risk-seeking Investor Preferences for Oil Spot and Futures

Hooi Hooi Lean () and Michael McAleer

No 13-132/III, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers from Tinbergen Institute

Abstract: This paper examines risk-averse and risk-seeking investor preferences for oil spot and futures prices by using the mean-variance (MV) criterion and stochastic dominance (SD) approach. The MV findings cannot distinguish between the preferences of spot and futures markets. However, the SD tests show that spot dominates futures in the downside risk, while futures dominate spot in the upside profit. On the other hand, the SD findings suggest that spot dominates futures in downside risk, while futures dominate spot in upside profit. Risk-averse investors prefer investing in the spot index. Risk seekers are attracted to the futures index to maximize their expected utility but not expected wealth in the entire period, as well as for both the OPEC and Iraq War sub-periods. The SD findings show that there is no arbitrage opportunity between the spot and futures markets, and these markets are not rejected as being efficient.

Keywords: Stochastic dominance; mean-variance; risk averter; risk seeker; futures market; spot market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 G12 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-09-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-sea and nep-upt
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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https://papers.tinbergen.nl/13132.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Risk-averse and Risk-seeking Investor Preferences for Oil Spot and Futures (2013)
Working Paper: Risk-averse and Risk-seeking Investor Preferences for Oil Spot and Futures (2013)
Working Paper: Risk-averse and Risk-seeking Investor Preferences for Oil Spot and Futures (2013)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tin:wpaper:20130132

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