The Prediction Value

Maurice Koster, Sascha Kurz, Ines Lindner () and Stefan Napel
Additional contact information
Maurice Koster: University of Amsterdam
Sascha Kurz: University of Bayreuth, Germany

No 13-188/II, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers from Tinbergen Institute

Abstract: We introduce the prediction value (PV) as a measure of players’ informational importance in probabilistic TU games. The latter combine a standard TU game and a probability distribution over the set of coalitions. Player i’s prediction value equals the difference between the conditional expectations of v(S) when i cooperates or not. We characterize the prediction value as a special member of the class of (extended) values which satisfy anonymity, linearity and a consistency property. Every n-player binomial semivalue coincides with the PV for a particular family of probability distributions over coalitions. The PV can thus be regarded as a power index in specific cases. Conversely, some semivalues – including the Banzhaf but not the Shapley value – can be interpreted in terms of informational importance.

Keywords: influence; voting games; cooperative games; Banzhaf value; Shapley value (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C71 D71 D72 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-11-25
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm and nep-gth
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Journal Article: The prediction value (2017)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tin:wpaper:20130188

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