The short-term effect of the COVID-19 crisis on employment probabilities of labour-market entrants in the Netherlands

Henri Bussink, Tobias Vervliet and Bas ter Weel
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Henri Bussink: SEO Economic Research
Tobias Vervliet: SEO Economic Research
Bas ter Weel: University of Amsterdam

No 22-030/V, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers from Tinbergen Institute

Abstract: This research documents employment opportunities of labour-market entrants during the COVID-19 crisis in the Netherlands. Two recent cohorts of graduates are studied and compared to two pre-COVID-19 cohorts: the 2019 cohort was unexpectedly hit by the COVID-19 crisis about six months after entering the labour market and the 2020 cohort graduated and entered the labour market in the midst of a lockdown. Our estimation results suggest short-term effects of lockdowns on employment probabilities, specifically for relatively lower educated labour-market entrants. The effects appear to be relatively small in size and seem to fade when the lockdown measures are eased. Men seem to have suffered more than women and some sectors are hit harder than others, which could result in short-run mismatches. Overall the effects appear to be less severe than during an economic recession, which is most likely due to the tight labour market and the strong measures taken by the government to mitigate the labour-market impact of the COVID-19 crisis.

Keywords: COVID-19 crisis; employment; young workers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I24 J10 J23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-04-25
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur
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