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Climate change and global international tourism: An evaluation for different scenarios

Jaume Roselló Nadal () and Maria Santana Gallego ()
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Jaume Roselló Nadal: Universitat de les Illes Balears, Postal: Edifici Jovellanos, Crta Valldemossa, km 7,5 07122 Palma de Mallorca (Spain)

Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Jaume Rossello ()

No 52, DEA Working Papers from Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada

Abstract: The current pattern of international tourist flows evidences how climate is one of the main factors in the destination choice of tourists. Climate scientists are very certain that the Earth’s climate will change at an unprecedented rate over the 21st century, anticipating global warming. This paper investigates the role of climate and other determining variables in destination choice for international tourist flows. A model for international tourist arrivals is estimated by using bilateral tourism movements between 178 countries from 1995 to 2010, allowing the estimation of a time-varying climatic sensitivity of tourists. Using data for the projected growth of Gross Domestic Product per capita and climatic conditions within the A2, B1 and B2 scenarios, the expected impact on international tourism flows is assessed, showing and evaluating how climate change would imply a loss of attractiveness for raditional warmerdestinations around the world but would increase attractiveness for high latitude countries.

Keywords: International tourism flows; Climate Change; Gravity model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L83 Q54 F64 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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