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Are better students really less overconfident? A preliminary test of different measures

Gianna Lotito, Anna Maffioletti and Marco Novarese ()

POLIS Working Papers from Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS

Abstract: In this work we use data from two sets of midterm exams and question-by-question evaluations of confidence levels and construct different indicators in order to study predictive ability and overconfidence. Our results show that (1) there is a significant evidence of a good ability of self-evaluation on the side of the best students; (2) worse metacognition does not seem to explain overconfidence. This suggests that different methods of investigating overconfidence might lead to results which are at least partially different from the ones discussed in the existing literature

Keywords: overconfidence; metacognition; predictive ability; performance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 16 pages
Date: 2014-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cbe and nep-edu
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