The Long-Run Behaviour of the Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures: A Panel Data Approach

Jesus Otero and Ana Iregui

No wp-2011-071, WIDER Working Paper Series from World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER)

Abstract: This study examines the Prebisch and Singer hypothesis using a panel of 24 commodity prices from 1900 to 2010. The modelling approach stems from the need to meet two key concerns: (1) the presence of cross-sectional dependence among commodity prices; and (2) the identification of potential structural breaks. To address these concerns, the Hadri and Rao test (2008) is employed. The findings suggest that all commodity prices exhibit a structural break at different locations across series, and that support for the Prebisch and Singer hypothesis is mixed.

Keywords: Raw materials; Panel analysis; Prices (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Related works:
Journal Article: The long-run behaviour of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures: a panel data approach (2013)
Working Paper: The long-run behaviour of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures: A panel data approach (2013)
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