Predicting Violence within Genocides: Meso-level Evidence from Rwanda

Omar Shahabudin McDoom

No wp-2012-106, WIDER Working Paper Series from World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER)

Abstract: Can we predict when and where violence will break out within cases of genocide? Given often weak political will to respond, knowing where to strategically prioritize limited resources is valuable information for international decision makers contemplating intervention. I develop a theoretical model to help identify areas vulnerable to violence during genocide. I argue vulnerability is a function of the state's coercive power and the ruling elite's control of this power from above, mediated by the strength of society's cohesion below.

Keywords: Conflict management; National security; Social conflict (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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