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Climate Uncertainty and Economic Development: Evaluating the Case of Mozambique to 2050

Channing Arndt and James Thurlow

No wp-2013-042, WIDER Working Paper Series from World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER)

Abstract: We apply a probabilistic approach to the evaluation of climate change impacts in the Zambeze River Valley. The economic modeling relies on an economywide modeling approach. Taking a distribution of shocks as inputs, we create hybrid frequency distributions of the potential economic impacts of climate change for Mozambique. The approach identifies an explicit range of potential outcomes and associates a probability with given sets of outcomes. For example, we find that the economy of Mozambique may be up to 13% smaller in 2050 due to the effects of climate change.

Keywords: Climate change; Economic forecasting; Environmental economics; Macroeconomics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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