Backsliding and reversal: The J-Curve revisited

David Carment, Mark Haichin and Peter Tikuisis

No wp-2017-170, WIDER Working Paper Series from World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER)

Abstract: Ian Bremmer published a treatise on the stability of states built on the notion that states fall along a curve resembling a slanted “J” when plotting their stability against openness. States in the turnover process are considered unstable, and are at risk of either reversing to a closed and stable system or even collapsing. Our paper shifts the J curve's associated conditions to a model to more accurately specify the causes of reversal in which crises of instability and backsliding occur.

Keywords: Democracy; Fragile states; Hybrid states; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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