Discerning trends in international metal prices in the presence of non-stationary volatility

Tony Addison and Atanu Ghoshray

No wp-2020-104, WIDER Working Paper Series from World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER)

Abstract: Modelling the underlying long-run trend of metal prices is important, given that selected metals are a source of income for many countries. However, estimating the underlying trend has proven to be difficult, given the persistence and volatility of primary commodity prices—metals are no exception. Recent events have led experts to believe that trends have been undergoing large swings; whether these movements are temporary or contribute to the trend being characterized by broken piecewise trends over certain lengths of time remains a contentious issue.

Keywords: Market prices; Volatility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Journal Article: Discerning trends in international metal prices in the presence of nonstationary volatility (2023)
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