Pandemics and their impact on oil and metal prices

Tony Addison and Atanu Ghoshray

No wp-2020-157, WIDER Working Paper Series from World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER)

Abstract: We examine the effect of pandemics on selected commodity prices—in particular, those of zinc, copper, lead, and oil. We set up a vector autoregressive model and analyse data since the mid-nineteenth century to determine how prices reacted to pandemics such as the 1918 Spanish Flu, 1957 Asian Flu, and 1968 Hong Kong Flu. We control for demand and supply fundamentals to generate forecasts from the point of outbreak, and we consider whether any pattern can be deduced in reactions to adverse global shocks.

Keywords: Pandemic; Commodities; Prices; Shocks; Structural VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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