Faraway, so close: the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on political violence in Asian countries

Michele Di Maio, Patricia Justino, Valerio Leone Sciabolazza and Cecilia Nardi

No wp-2024-30, WIDER Working Paper Series from World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER)

Abstract: We show that the Russia-Ukraine-war-induced changes in the international price of wheat affected political violence in Asia. Using data from 13 countries and more than four million cell-level observations, we show that a higher wheat price increases political violence in areas that are more suitable to produce that crop. We interpret this evidence as consistent with a rapacity effect being at play: the higher value of agricultural output increases the incentive to violently appropriate it. Our result is robust to a number of falsification and robustness tests.

Keywords: War; Commodity shocks; Trade; Political violence; Agricultural market performance; Asia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-cis, nep-int, nep-pol, nep-sea and nep-tra
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2024-30

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