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When (not) to target social programs: the simple arithmetic of the effectiveness of scale-up

Sam Jones, Telça Massingue and Hilário Muchabel

No wp-2025-80, WIDER Working Paper Series from World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER)

Abstract: We develop a framework to assess when social programmes should prioritize expanding coverage versus improving targeting accuracy. Rather than treating universalism and targeting as a binary choice, we derive a practical rule-of-thumb based on observed eligibility rates and programme quotas to indicate when marginal welfare gains from expanding programme access may outweigh those from improved targeting.

Keywords: Social protection; Cash transfers; Targeting; Universalism; Welfare impact; Mozambique (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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