A probabilistic measure to state fragility

Joan Margalef

No wp-2026-20, WIDER Working Paper Series from World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER)

Abstract: This paper develops a novel measure of state fragility: the probability of state failure. We define state failure as the inability to perform core functions and operationalize it through observable breakdowns—conflict, territorial control, institutional deficiency, and public service deterioration. Using a machine-learning approach, we estimate failure probabilities for 160 countries and assess their predictive performance and key predictors. The proposed measure is forward-looking, continuous, comparable across countries and over time, and exhibits strong predictive power.

Keywords: State fragility; State failure; Measurement; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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