Climate shocks, labour market dynamics and inequality in South Africa: Evidence from administrative data tax

Sefa Awaworyi Churchill, Yohannes Kefale Mogess and Yuvana Jaichand

No wp-2026-42, WIDER Working Paper Series from World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER)

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of temperature shocks on individual earnings and income inequality in South Africa. We leverage high-resolution satellite temperature data, merged with administrative tax records from the South African National Treasury and UNU-WIDER. Data from 2009 to 2022 shows that temperature shocks significantly reduce income, with a one-standard-deviation increase in average temperature associated with a 1 per cent decline in earnings and a 1.3 per cent decline in total income. However, we observe no statistically significant effects on income inequality.

Keywords: Temperature; Rainfall; Income; Inequality; Labour market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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